Sounds like you just wan WPA + defense.
Sounds like you just wan WPA + defense.
You need a bottle of tequila to read this thread. Baseball became more complicated for me. I like the info, but shite.
When they account for FIP do they consider the fact that in the NL the ninth hitter is a pitcher who is a prime candidate to strike out where as in the AL there is the DH who is usually a top hitter
Fangraphs - How (Not) to Set Up a Fastball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-n...up-a-fastball/)
I have a couple of quibbles and some questions about this article (plus I wanted to post it since I thought it was interesting)....
I’m looking at how best to set up different types of pitches. We’ll start with four-seam fastballs, and, so as to keep it simple for now, focus just on the fastball and on the pitch immediately beforehand.Not pitches before that in the same at-bat, not pitches to the same batter earlier in the game, not pitches to that batter from a different game.
Intuitively, you might expect changing speeds on the batter to be an effective way to mess with their swing and timing. A changeup, then, should be a good pitch to set up a fastball – changeups are generally 10-plus mph slower than the same pitcher’s fastball. Curveballs, too, should be decent setup pitches, as should sliders to a lesser extent. (Sliders are usually thrown harder than curves.) As it turns out, though, it doesn’t quite work that way.
- Starting graphs away from zero is something that I don't think should be done without a very good reason, I'm not sure there's justification here and so the disparities presented seem much larger than perhaps is appropriate.
- Not presenting the number of observations for each preceding pitch type was probably a clutter/brevity decision but without them it makes it difficult to even quickly ballpark whether or not the differences between the preceding pitch types are statistically different from zero.
- The bolded text - simply pretending that these effects don't exist doesn't mean that they don't in fact matter. I understand that it may seem like they don't matter when answering the question, "Is there evidence that there exists an optimal pitch preceding a four-seam fastball?" but it seems like there could be significant interaction effects between those components and the selection of preceding pitch, no?
- There doesn't appear to be any explicitly stated sample restrictions. I don't really know the answer to this but how much does it matter that we're including non-starters (specifically, closers)? I know that they pitch fewer innings but intuitively sequencing matters less for a guy like Sanchez (or perhaps Osuna would be a better example?) than it does for a guy like Greinke, right? I mean I understand that imposing certain types of restrictions will introduce attrition bias but not making those restrictions could also be problematic.
- There's a fundamental assumption imposed or if not "imposed" then underlying the analysis - that fastballs are the pitch being primed, not the priming pitch. Is this a reasonable starting point? For example, in this article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco...iest-changeup/) talking about Estrada's changeup it seems that the ordering is fastball then changeup.
Additionally, in the comments section MGL (I assume the real MGL?) wrote:
Wouldn't this only be the case with perfect information? Does anyone have any links or anything about this particular point?...
Finally I have said for many years that the notion of a “set-up pitch” is mostly nonsense that you hear from commentators and baseball insiders. All pitches and all sequences should have the same value according to game theory, assuming a Nash Equilibrium.
EDIT: Found more pitch sequencing stuff where MGL makes an appearance:
And here's a few other links on it for those interested in reading more:
EDIT 2: On further thought I understand MGL's comment abut equal value, it is a direct result of the equilibrium. Just had a brain fart.
Last edited by Thomas Malthus; 12-23-2015 at 04:55 AM.
Power pitchers tend to have power breaking balls too. I bet THOSE have lower zone% and lead to the walk rates.
ANOTHER IDEA - power pitchers get more whiffs. That's less contact. Less balls in play. Deeper counts. More walks!
It's elementary, batman.