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Thread: Sabermetrics | Introduction and Discussion

  1. #33
    DONOR jays4life19's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    we'll let this stay sticky as a reference for users to be able to go into as long as it's an open dialog and kept at a good level of respect between community members.


    thanks
    You're welcome.

  2. #34
    DONOR Spanky99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jays4life19 View Post
    You're welcome.
    lol

  3. #35
    All Star NorthOf49's Avatar
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    Can we get the title corrected? The word is 'sabermetrics.'

  4. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49 View Post
    Can we get the title corrected? The word is 'sabermetrics.'
    I believe both forms are actually correct.

  5. #37
    All Star NorthOf49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abomination View Post
    I believe both forms are actually correct.
    Without the 'e' there are too many consecutive consonants. A google search of that version uncovers no legit sources. Bill James invented the term with an 'e.'

    http://sabr.org/sabermetrics

  6. #38
    All Star Jimcanuck's Avatar
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    no question sabermetrics will be reasonably accurate for players with at x number of years of data. using past performance to predict future performance in this case, barring injury, works.

    for prospects, the data is sparse, and MiLB statistics can be misleading. for prospects, scouting > sabermetrics.

    my question is, at what point does the crossover occur and sabermetrics exceed scouting reports in value?

  7. #39
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    go away
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  8. #40
    All Star NorthOf49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    no question sabermetrics will be reasonably accurate for players with at x number of years of data. using past performance to predict future performance in this case, barring injury, works.

    for prospects, the data is sparse, and MiLB statistics can be misleading. for prospects, scouting > sabermetrics.

    my question is, at what point does the crossover occur and sabermetrics exceed scouting reports in value?
    Sabermetrics is all about using all the available information to make better decisions by removing bias and not relying on unfounded assumptions. The most accurate approach will blend a player's statistics with his scouting reports. Teams generally have enough scouts and looks at prospects that they can use statistical methods to better extract information from their scouting reports.

    Scouts have statistics on players and use them to influence their opinions. In recent years, we've seen top prospects lists being increasingly driven by statistics. So it is difficult to separate them into two distinct camps as you're supposing.

  9. #41
    All Star Jimcanuck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49 View Post
    Sabermetrics is all about using all the available information to make better decisions by removing bias and not relying on unfounded assumptions. The most accurate approach will blend a player's statistics with his scouting reports. Teams generally have enough scouts and looks at prospects that they can use statistical methods to better extract information from their scouting reports.

    Scouts have statistics on players and use them to influence their opinions. In recent years, we've seen top prospects lists being increasingly driven by statistics. So it is difficult to separate them into two distinct camps as you're supposing.
    Not separating them. the question is when does sabermetrics exceed scouting in value. in other words both have value, but depending on the stage of the player's career, one has more relative value than the other. for example, the stats of a high school player probably has little value compared to a scout's assessment of potential

  10. #42
    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Not separating them. the question is when does sabermetrics exceed scouting in value. in other words both have value, but depending on the stage of the player's career, one has more relative value than the other. for example, the stats of a high school player probably has little value compared to a scout's assessment of potential
    Yeah, of course no one would argue there's much to be gleamed from a high schooler's stats. However, and you see it with top 100 lists all the time, scouts react more to stats than stats guys do. A pitcher can be pitching well with some bad ERA luck and that will influence a scout negatively more than a real sabery guy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grant77 View Post
    I think we all know it's the latter. The Mariners have been a disgustingly bad offensive for a decade now and nothing has changed.

  11. #43
    All Star NorthOf49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Not separating them. the question is when does sabermetrics exceed scouting in value. in other words both have value, but depending on the stage of the player's career, one has more relative value than the other. for example, the stats of a high school player probably has little value compared to a scout's assessment of potential
    Okay, I understand what you're getting at. Double-A is commonly cited as the level at which stats really matter. If you can hit/pitch at an appropriate age in AA, you're set. Below that, tools are generally more important so having good scouts in the low minors can be very valuable.

    I believe that JFAS has produced some research on this concept before. Good question.

  12. #44
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49 View Post
    Okay, I understand what you're getting at. Double-A is commonly cited as the level at which stats really matter. If you can hit/pitch at an appropriate age in AA, you're set. Below that, tools are generally more important so having good scouts in the low minors can be very valuable.

    I believe that JFAS has produced some research on this concept before. Good question.
    Not beyond his Age/Level post.
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  13. #45
    All Star Jimcanuck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49 View Post
    Okay, I understand what you're getting at. Double-A is commonly cited as the level at which stats really matter. If you can hit/pitch at an appropriate age in AA, you're set. Below that, tools are generally more important so having good scouts in the low minors can be very valuable.

    I believe that JFAS has produced some research on this concept before. Good question.
    I can buy that, the jump from A+ to AA is the most difficult. Suggesting the talent at AA is 'major league'. So stats below AA shouldn't be given much weight......

  14. #46
    All Star Jimcanuck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GD View Post
    Not beyond his Age/Level post.
    Be quiet, the adults are talking

  15. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Be quiet, the adults are talking
    Thanks for the contribution to the thread. Glad you're in here. Maybe you'll pick up a thing or two.

    probably not, though
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  16. #48
    All Star NorthOf49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    I can buy that, the jump from A+ to AA is the most difficult. Suggesting the talent at AA is 'major league'. So stats below AA shouldn't be given much weight......
    Yep, AA is a big jump.

    Here's the article from JFAS that contains relevant information: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/02/0...ts-mlb-primes/

    Nox posted this great table in February:

    Quote Originally Posted by Nox View Post
    I guess it depends on the definition of "only useful". If he meant, scouting is only more important than measured game events at those levels, he's right.

    Generally:


    Level Scouting Game Events
    HS/College/Young Internationals Very Useful Not Very Useful
    Rk Useful Useful
    A-/A Kind of Useful Useful
    A+ Not Very Useful Useful
    AA Not Very Useful Very Useful
    AAA Almost Useless Very Useful
    MLB Useless Very Useful

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