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Thread: Sabermetrics | Introduction and Discussion

  1. #161
    All Star Cyborg's Avatar
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    Sounds like you just wan WPA + defense.

  2. #162
    Blue Chip Prospect
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    You need a bottle of tequila to read this thread. Baseball became more complicated for me. I like the info, but shite.

  3. #163
    DONOR Spanky99's Avatar
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    lol

  4. #164
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    When they account for FIP do they consider the fact that in the NL the ninth hitter is a pitcher who is a prime candidate to strike out where as in the AL there is the DH who is usually a top hitter

  5. #165
    All Star Cyborg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RealAccountant View Post
    When they account for FIP do they consider the fact that in the NL the ninth hitter is a pitcher who is a prime candidate to strike out where as in the AL there is the DH who is usually a top hitter
    In WAR yes. FIP is unadjusted of park and league. FIP- is.

  6. #166
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    Always use FIP-, ERA-, xFIP-, etc if you can. They really need SIERA-.
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  7. #167
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    I'm unaware of anywhere that displays RA9-.
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  8. #168
    Hall of Famer NJH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GD View Post
    I'm unaware of anywhere that displays RA9-.
    If only there was like, some type of saber resource where we could access a bunch of newfangled stats that slip through the Fangraphs/BP cracks

  9. #169
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJH View Post
    If only there was like, some type of saber resource where we could access a bunch of newfangled stats that slip through the Fangraphs/BP cracks
    If only someone who could write that site's brain wasn't an owned asset
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  10. #170
    Hall of Famer NJH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GD View Post
    If only someone who could write that site's brain wasn't an owned asset
    You are the only hope. I can't computer.

  11. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJH View Post
    You are the only hope. I can't computer.
    And GD can't math lol.

  12. #172
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abomination View Post
    And GD can't math lol.
    Hey! I'm just not a.. how would you say... Cyborg?

    I can computer. I'll do it eventually.
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  13. #173
    Prospect Thomas Malthus's Avatar
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    Fangraphs - How (Not) to Set Up a Fastball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-n...up-a-fastball/)

    ...
    I’m looking at how best to set up different types of pitches. We’ll start with four-seam fastballs, and, so as to keep it simple for now, focus just on the fastball and on the pitch immediately beforehand.Not pitches before that in the same at-bat, not pitches to the same batter earlier in the game, not pitches to that batter from a different game.

    Intuitively, you might expect changing speeds on the batter to be an effective way to mess with their swing and timing. A changeup, then, should be a good pitch to set up a fastball – changeups are generally 10-plus mph slower than the same pitcher’s fastball. Curveballs, too, should be decent setup pitches, as should sliders to a lesser extent. (Sliders are usually thrown harder than curves.) As it turns out, though, it doesn’t quite work that way.
    ...
    I have a couple of quibbles and some questions about this article (plus I wanted to post it since I thought it was interesting).

    Quibbles
    • Starting graphs away from zero is something that I don't think should be done without a very good reason, I'm not sure there's justification here and so the disparities presented seem much larger than perhaps is appropriate.
    • Not presenting the number of observations for each preceding pitch type was probably a clutter/brevity decision but without them it makes it difficult to even quickly ballpark whether or not the differences between the preceding pitch types are statistically different from zero.


    Questions
    • The bolded text - simply pretending that these effects don't exist doesn't mean that they don't in fact matter. I understand that it may seem like they don't matter when answering the question, "Is there evidence that there exists an optimal pitch preceding a four-seam fastball?" but it seems like there could be significant interaction effects between those components and the selection of preceding pitch, no?
    • There doesn't appear to be any explicitly stated sample restrictions. I don't really know the answer to this but how much does it matter that we're including non-starters (specifically, closers)? I know that they pitch fewer innings but intuitively sequencing matters less for a guy like Sanchez (or perhaps Osuna would be a better example?) than it does for a guy like Greinke, right? I mean I understand that imposing certain types of restrictions will introduce attrition bias but not making those restrictions could also be problematic.
    • There's a fundamental assumption imposed or if not "imposed" then underlying the analysis - that fastballs are the pitch being primed, not the priming pitch. Is this a reasonable starting point? For example, in this article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco...iest-changeup/) talking about Estrada's changeup it seems that the ordering is fastball then changeup.


    Additionally, in the comments section MGL (I assume the real MGL?) wrote:
    ...
    Finally I have said for many years that the notion of a “set-up pitch” is mostly nonsense that you hear from commentators and baseball insiders. All pitches and all sequences should have the same value according to game theory, assuming a Nash Equilibrium.
    Wouldn't this only be the case with perfect information? Does anyone have any links or anything about this particular point?

    EDIT: Found more pitch sequencing stuff where MGL makes an appearance:
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/definin...cing-question/
    http://mglbaseball.com/2013/10/08/do...-how-to-pitch/

    And here's a few other links on it for those interested in reading more:
    http://cheaptalk.org/2011/10/19/seri...tch-sequences/
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=11585
    http://www.galvanize.com/blog/the-da.../#.VnpgjJMrKRs
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-knuckleballs/

    EDIT 2: On further thought I understand MGL's comment abut equal value, it is a direct result of the equilibrium. Just had a brain fart.
    Last edited by Thomas Malthus; 12-23-2015 at 04:55 AM.

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  15. #174
    Hall of Famer King's Avatar
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  16. #175
    Hall of Famer NJH's Avatar
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    "Interestingly enough, despite there being no relationship between higher fastball velocities and strike zone %, there is a moderate relationship between higher fastball velocities and walk rates – so another factor must be involved."

    Power pitchers tend to have power breaking balls too. I bet THOSE have lower zone% and lead to the walk rates.

    ANOTHER IDEA - power pitchers get more whiffs. That's less contact. Less balls in play. Deeper counts. More walks!

    It's elementary, batman.

    wait

  17. #176
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