65 FV Prospects1. Austin Meadows, OF
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Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Grayson HS (GA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 195 Bat/Throw L/L Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/70 55/60 45/60 60/55 40/50 40/40
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .266/.333/.536 between Double- and Triple-A as a 21-year-old.
Scouting Report
Meadows dominated Double-A for 45 games before receiving a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis in mid-June. Soon after that, he spent a month on the DL with a hamstring injury, the third one with which Meadows has dealt in as many years (he had reoccurring hammy issues in 2014) and never got things going after he returned, slashing .214/.297/.460. Even so, that’s not alarming in any way for a 21-year-old, especially in a small sample.
Most of the discussions I’ve had with scouts about Meadows eventually turn toward the logjam situation at the corners in Pittsburgh and how Meadows fits within that. He runs well enough to play center field right now and most think he’ll stay there (though his reads there are inconsistent), but Meadows does still has some physical projection left and might slow down as he fills out, even if he never has another hamstring issue. If Meadows loses the speed for center, he and his below-average arm move to left field, though some have posited a move to first base if Josh Bell continues to be unplayable there. The latter scenario would probably involve hitting the breaks on Meadows’ overall development to get him up to speed, and this is just a speculative possibility because of all the talented pieces Pittsburgh has at the corners.
No matter where Meadows eventually slots in defensively, his bat will play. He has tremendous feel to hit, plus bat speed and is balanced and comfortable at the plate. He also has a terrific idea of the strike zone which, of course, helps him get on base, but could also one day be the key to unlocking in-game power production as he narrows his focus toward pitches he can crush. If you want to nitpick, Meadows has a little bit of a hitch that can cause him to be late and push weak contact the other way, but he’s just 21 and has time to iron that out if you’re indeed concerned about it. This is a hitter who projects to hit for in-game power without sacrificing much contact. That kind of profile is rare for any hitter, let alone one who has a chance to play a premium defensive position.
I think .300 with 23-plus home runs is in play here. That’s a 5 WAR player if Meadows can stay in center. If he can’t (those hammy issues do worry me) or simply doesn’t due to positional need, then the value changes pretty significantly. I docked his FV by a half grade due to the risk associated with his relatively frequent injuries but think he’s one of the best prospects in all of baseball and the second-best one (behind Yoan Moncada) whom I’ve considered so far in this series.
While close to the big leagues, Meadows isn’t close to being a finished product. He should debut in 2017 but it’d be foolhardy to expect instantaneous value the way you could with Andrew Benintendi and Alex Bregman.
KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 14.4 WAR
I'm so hard.
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Originally Posted by Spanky99
