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Thread: Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

  1. #5425
    Hall of Famer King's Avatar
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    Just looking over how some guys have fared this year.


    JB Woodman. 20 hit tool = 93 wRC+ and 37% K Rate as a 22 year old in Low A.

    Josh Palacios. No power and groundball profile has resulted in a poor season in Low A.

    Bradley Jones. His midwest league run was fun but he has since gotten exposed in Dunedin and has been injured for over a month.

    Cavan Biggio. Having the best season of these 4 who I have viewed as a group together being fringe guys from the 2016 draft. I don't like his MLB upside but it will be interesting to see how he fairs in AA next season.

    Rowdy Tellez: Not hitting well in AAA which doesn't bode well for his future. Not too sure what his issue is here but hoping for a bounce back in 2018.
    Jon Harris: Cementing himself as a non prospect in AA.

    Christian Lopes: Have always had a soft spot for this guy so hoping he can be a possible up and down guy at the MLB level. Not expecting much though.

    Tim Mayza: Still not seeing it with this guy but some in the organization like him and he could be on the roster in September. For a guy with his stuff I would expect better numbers than what he's done so far.

    Richard Urena: Doesn't look like a whole lot of upside here as the bat isn't coming around and the reports on his defense have been poor. He is young though so has time to turn it around.

    Anthony Alford: Was having a great season in AA before having another season derailed by injuries. He's 23 now and it's time for him to show he'll be an MLB guy.

    Dalton Pompey: Probably close to quitting baseball.

    Danny Jansen: Had a big batted ball profile change where he went from an extreme fly ball hitter to a more line drive/ground ball/spray hitter approach. I was skeptical at first but it's worked out for him and now he looks like he could be a guy for us.

    Reese McGuire: Has been passed by Jansen on the catching depth chart after a season full of injuries. Not much has changed here but he's going to have to have a big year in 2018 to stay relevant.

    Harold Ramirez: His bat is starting to come around over the last month or so, but definitely a poor season from Ramirez.

    Lourdes Gurriel: Not really what we all expected but a throwaway season due to injuries.

    Conner Greene: Put him in the bullpen and let him air it out. I'm going to have an aneurysm if I pull up a box score and see another 5+ walk start this year.

    Sean Reid-Foley: Definitely not a good season from SRF but there's still upside here.

    Ryan Borucki: In a season full of guys who have disappointed he's put himself on the map as a possible starter by mid 2018. Proving the front office right in their decision to add him to the 40 man roster.

    Francisco Rios: K rate hasn't translated from that 2016 run in the midwest league but doesn't look like there is a whole lot of starting upside this season. Might do well in a bullpen role.

    Angel Perdomo: Having a pretty terrible season as a 23 year old in Dunedin and looks like he might also be suited well for a bullpen move.

    Jordan Romano: Finally having a healthy season and his velocity is back after TJS. Would like to see what he could do in New Hampshire.

    TJ Zeuch: Zeuch was having a good season in Dunedin before his injury. Youth is still on his side as he turned 22 just 2 days ago.

    Max Pentecost: It's nice to see him having a healthy season. Will have a lot to prove in New Hampshire next year.

    Bo Bichette: Projects for a 78 wRC+ by Steamer which is absurd for a player with no at bats in AA. I don't think I've ever seen a player project that well in the middle level of the minors. If he crushes New Hampshire when given the opportunity, he should be considered a top 5 prospect in baseball and will probably break steamers projection system.

    Vlad Jr: Having a season nearly as impressive as Bichette given his youth. So much upside with these two.

    Justin Maese: Pitching profile hasn't changed a ton to me but again, with his shoulder injury his season has been derailed.

    Patrick Murphy: Numbers aren't great in Lansing but I saw on twitter he was sitting 94-96 with his fastball in his last start which would bode well for his future, even if just as a reliever.

    Yennsy Diaz: Has some pure arm strength and if he could develop his secondaries enough might be a bullpen arm down the line.

    Yeltsin Gudino: Has a good feel for defense at shortstop with contact ability at the plate. Just wait for a little bit of power to come around and he could skyrocket.

    Edward Olivares: Hard to believe he's 6'2 as every game I've watched he looks as small as Andrew Benintendi at the plate. Crushing it lately with a 156 wRC+ over the last calendar month, and looks like he will need to be challenged with a Dunedin assignment.

    Mitch Nay: Finally getting back into the rhythm after playing everyday but not hitting that well in Lansing. The upside here is mostly gone.

    Kevin Vicuna: Could be another Gudino if he even adds a little bit of strength. Almost everything is on the ground with a 70% GB rate this year. slap singles hitter!

    Reggie Pruitt: He can run!

    Jose Espada: Having a good season in Vancouver with 30k in 24 innings. Will be another interesting follow in Lansing next year.

    Chris Hall/Orlando Pascual/William Oullette/Jake Fishman/Kyle Weatherly: Dont know too much about these guys but they are all having good seasons pitching in Vancouver.

    Matt Morgan: Have to figure he's a release candidate at the end of this season, as he just hasn't hit in pro ball and the defense has been poor.

    Mc Gregory Contreras: Hasn't hit in Bluefield this year in his first season state side, but could still be some upside here.

    Ryan Gold: A 2016 draftee who has done all that he's needed to do in short season/rookie ball. A Lansing assignment for next season will be interesting to follow.

    Maximo Castillo: An IFA who first popped up in 2016 with some arm strength has pitched well in Bluefield. Also look for him to solidify his prospect status with a Lansing assignment for the 18 year old next season.

    Josh Winckowski: Winckowski has had an up and down season in Bluefield with some highs (9k start) and lows (5 walk start). Overall, it hasn't been very pretty.

    Otto Lopez: A 2016 IFA who's a middle infielder with a contact oriented approach, much like Vicuna and Gudino. Only ~9 months younger than Vicuna with a lot less pro experience, likely not much upside here.

    Dom Abbadessa: The speedy CF is crushing the GCL in his 2nd pro season hitting .390 with not many strikeouts. He's ready for Bluefield at this point.

    Joseph Reyes: Our top IFA signing from 2016 has had a pedestrian season in the GCL (112 wRC+), but he's not that young being 19 years old. As a 1B the upside here is minimal too.

    DJ Daniels: He should have played football.

    Juan Meza: Top IFA signing from 2014 who was liked for his pitchability and ability to throw strikes hasn't been able to adjust to pro ball, now pitching out of the bullpen he looks like a release candidate.

    DSL Jays: None of these guys have hit particularly well.






    Not a whole lot to like here. Tons of injuries and most of the guys we had hopes for this past offseason have disappointed. Vlad and Bo are the crown jewels of the system now.

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  3. #5426
    Hall of Famer burlingtonbandit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    I don't know how the Dodgers keep finding quality players deep into the draft:

    Verdugo (2nd round)

    Calhoun (4th round)

    Bellinger (4th round)

    Ross Stripling (5th round)

    Austin Barnes (9th round)

    Joc Pederson (11th round)

    Walker Bueler and Corey Seager were 1st round picks, but even they were out of the Top 10. To say they've drafted well in recent years would be a gigantic understatement.
    They pour a ton of $ into their player development.

  4. #5427
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    Borucki showing SRF and Greene how it's done. 7IP 0BB 7K.

  5. #5428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    I don't know how the Dodgers keep finding quality players deep into the draft:

    Verdugo (2nd round)

    Calhoun (4th round)

    Bellinger (4th round)

    Ross Stripling (5th round)

    Austin Barnes (9th round)

    Joc Pederson (11th round)

    Walker Bueler and Corey Seager were 1st round picks, but even they were out of the Top 10. To say they've drafted well in recent years would be a gigantic understatement.
    Barnes was drafted by the Marlins (but plucked by them from a trade).

    They have so many guys that they can trade the lesser ones who still have upside (Grant Holmes, Jose De Leon, Jharel Cotton, Willie Calhoun etc.) and not miss a beat. They can keep the studs like Bellinger, Buehler, Verdugo, Urias. They have another wave coming up with guys in the lower levels of full season ball like Dustin May, Jeren Kendall, Mitch White, Keibert Ruiz, DJ Peters etc. Just looking at their pitchers in AA/AAA is laughable. Everyone has absurd strikeout ratios but they have so many of them most won't even get considered.

    It's an organization that is the envy of baseball and going to good for a very long time.

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  7. #5429
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    I still like McGuire as a more than capable major league backup catcher. He's very solid defensively. Of what little I saw of him this Spring Training, he looked good.

    His bat leaves a lot to be desired. He's not going to be an impact guy with the stick, but at least he knows how to work a walk. Doesn't strike out a ton either. Pentecost and Jansen are a lot hitters obviously, but I'm not too sure about them as catchers.

  8. #5430
    Hall of Famer King's Avatar
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    Jansen not a catcher based on what? I've been following him fairly closely since he was drafted and have never read a bad defensive report. Most applaud him for his strong receiving skills and throwing arm. Seems like a bunch of bullshit too me.

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  10. #5431
    Hall of Famer burlingtonbandit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by King View Post
    Jansen not a catcher based on what? I've been following him fairly closely since he was drafted and have never read a bad defensive report. Most applaud him for his strong receiving skills and throwing arm. Seems like a bunch of bullshit too me.
    He's had some serious knee injuries so maybe its the health that people think will hold him back from being a C. He's a pretty big guy at 6'3 225lbs so that puts a lot of stress on the legs.

  11. #5432
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    There has literally never been any talk of him moving off the position. He'll stay at catcher unless he's so incompetent at the position they'll have to play him elsewhere, which he's not. Or if the injuries become too much which has already been an issue.

  12. #5433
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    Quote Originally Posted by burlingtonbandit View Post
    He's had some serious knee injuries so maybe its the health that people think will hold him back from being a C. He's a pretty big guy at 6'3 225lbs so that puts a lot of stress on the legs.
    It would be the only argument I would buy unless there was reason to believe otherwise. He'll be a catcher unless the injuries keep racking up and he physically can't handle it anymore.

  13. #5434
    Moderator KingKat's Avatar
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    Thanks for the summary, King. Great to have you back.

    I seem to recall that Tellez is dealing with a cancer in his family (mother?). Maybe that's thrown off his focus. I was a fan before this season so I'm tempted to give him a mulligan.

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  15. #5435
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    Quote Originally Posted by King View Post
    Jansen not a catcher based on what? I've been following him fairly closely since he was drafted and have never read a bad defensive report. Most applaud him for his strong receiving skills and throwing arm. Seems like a bunch of bullshit too me.
    Then you aren't following closely enough, as several reports have noted that there is nothing special at all about his defense. He received poor grades in the AFL last fall. Why do you think he keeps getting ranked so low on these updated lists? If he had "strong receiving skills and throwing arm" on top of his offensive season this year you would expect a Top 5-10 ranking in our system, no? Instead Pentecost still gets ranked higher...because he profiles better on both sides of the plate, even with the million injuries.

  16. #5436
    Hall of Famer King's Avatar
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    I don't think he's a defensive gem I just don't think he's bad enough he'll have to move off the position. Also, links?

  17. #5437
    Prospect vilifyingforce's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by metafour View Post
    Then you aren't following closely enough, as several reports have noted that there is nothing special at all about his defense. He received poor grades in the AFL last fall. Why do you think he keeps getting ranked so low on these updated lists? If he had "strong receiving skills and throwing arm" on top of his offensive season this year you would expect a Top 5-10 ranking in our system, no? Instead Pentecost still gets ranked higher...because he profiles better on both sides of the plate, even with the million injuries.
    Jansen never hit before this season. What reputable prospect list maker shoves a kid who just made mechanical changes to his swing into a Top 10 list?

    Small report on his play in the AFL: https://jaysjournal.com/2017/01/19/t...-danny-jansen/

    The biggest tool working in Jansen’s favour is that he’s a catcher who should stick at the position long term. He has the build necessary at 6-foot-2, 225 pounds, and will be behind the plate every day as he develops.
    Baseball Prospectus from March: http://toronto.locals.baseballprospe...ays-farm-team/

    Danny Jansen – made the AFL roster last fall and hit well after a couple of injury plagued seasons. Reportedly impressing in Florida right now, he’s an impressive defender who still needs to prove he can hit over a full season. It will be of interest how often the D-Jays let him work on his bat at DH while Pentecost tries to re-establish his defense.

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  19. #5438
    DONOR Spanky99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKat View Post
    Thanks for the summary, King. Great to have you back.

    I seem to recall that Tellez is dealing with a cancer in his family (mother?). Maybe that's thrown off his focus. I was a fan before this season so I'm tempted to give him a mulligan.
    Since his mother has been cleared, he's starting to have better AB's since, IIRC. That had to be tough on a young guy his age, if not anyone, really.
    Quote Originally Posted by gruber92 View Post
    Lol.. I'd be willing to bet everything i own in a race vs Bautista. I'm telling you seriously, he has no chance.

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  21. #5439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanky99 View Post
    Since his mother has been cleared, he's starting to have better AB's since, IIRC. That had to be tough on a young guy his age, if not anyone, really.
    Yeah exactly, that's tough for anyone to deal with let alone someone with all the pressure of being a young pro athlete. Can't blame the kid for being off this season.

    No doubt he's swinging the bat better now with so much weight off his shoulders.

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  23. #5440
    Hall of Famer King's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft thoughts from the Jays midwest area scout

    http://www.postcrescent.com/story/sp...hind/87014564/

    Wes Penick remembers scouting Jansen in the summer of 2012.

    Penick, the upper Midwest scout for the Blue Jays, scours Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas for Toronto through heat, rain, cold and snow in hopes of finding that diamond in the rough.

    It was Jansen’s physical presence that first caught Penick’s eye.

    “I was watching him play for the GRB Rays and I was like, ‘OK, here’s a kid that is big, strong, physical and looks like he can catch,’ ” Penick said.

    As Jansen entered the spring playing for Appleton West, his talent defensively became undeniable when Penick made several six-hour treks from his home in Iowa to visit the Fox Valley to watch him play.

    Inclement weather postponed his first opportunity to see Jansen. But David Gassner, the Appleton West coach at the time and a former major league pitcher, put Jansen through batting practice and catcher’s drills in an attempt to showcase his skills for the group of scouts on hand, including Penick.

    Penick came away impressed and made another visit to watch Jansen play. It was a bit of deja vu for Penick, with the game again mired in inclement weather. Still, Jansen’s defensive prowess shined.

    “I was more impressed with his ability to receive and block balls. Especially for a kid in the upper Midwest and a high school kid, you don’t see that often,” Penick said. “And then there’s the fact that he had some pop in his bat, too. So we look for catchers that are built around the 6-foot-1 to 6-foot-3 range and about 200-230 pounds. And he kind of fit that mold.”

    Jansen’s leadership was also apparent, and it’s those kind of intangibles that boost a player’s value.

    “You could see that. The leadership. He’s a competitor,” Penick said. “And I underestimated that a bit actually. I knew he was competitive, but now that he’s in pro ball, he’s more competitive than what I expected him to be.”

    Also helping Jansen’s cause was catching teammate Nathan Disch, currently a senior pitcher at Jacksonville University (Fla.), a Division I program.

    “Upper Midwest catchers, they’re not usually catching guys with quality stuff and he was catching a DI type pitcher (Disch),” Penick said. “When I saw him (his senior year) he blocked a lot of balls, threw some guys out and hit a home run to center field that day.

    “He ended up getting injured and came back right before the draft in the playoffs against Kimberly.”


    Fangraphs


    2015 - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evalu...nto-blue-jays/

    19. Dan Jansen, C Video: Jansen signed for $100,000 in the 16th round in 2o13 from a Wisconsin high school and the cold weather athlete emerged quicker than expected, putting up nice numbers in his first full season. Jansen has a powerful frame at 6’2/215 and has average raw power that he’s learning to integrate into his game, but he isn’t all tools: he has more walks than strikeouts for his career. The swing is good and he was limited by a knee issue in 2014, but has a 55 arm and enough ability to stick behind the plate. His full-season debut comes in 2015 and he’s a favorite of many in the organization to take a big step forward this season.

    2016 - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evalu...nto-blue-jays/

    C Danny Jansen has shown decent raw power and doesn’t strike out much, but his offensive upside is still relatively limited. He has improved his catching enough to project as a potential average defender, giving him some backup upside.

    Longenhagen didnt even mention him for 2017.


    MLB Pipeline


    2015
    Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 45 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
    Jansen was a 16th-round pick in 2013 out of the Wisconsin high school ranks and turned some heads with his play in the Appalachian League during his first full professional season.

    Jansen has solid power potential thanks to his bat speed and big, strong build. He does a good job of putting the bat on the ball and has a good feel for the strike zone, making him difficult to strike out. He has made his biggest strides behind the plate. He has good receiving skills and has worked to improve his throwing.

    Developing high school catchers takes time, but Jansen is off to a good start. Having already shown the ability to make adjustments gives scouts optimism that he'll continue to improve as he advances in the Minor Leagues.


    2016
    Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 45 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
    The Blue Jays signed Jansen for $100,000 as a 16th-rounder out of a Wisconsin high school in 2013. He impressed with his play in the Appalachian League during his first full professional season, so much so that he opened his full-season debut as Class A Lansing's primary catcher. Unfortunately, Jansen's promising campaign was derailed in late May when a broken bone in his left hand -- which suffered on a hitter's follow-through -- forced him to the disabled list. Injuries continued to plague Jansen in 2016, when a broken hamate in his left hand in early May sidelined him for nearly two months.

    A right-handed hitter, Jansen has solid power potential thanks to his bat speed and big, strong build. He makes a lot of contact and has a good feel for the strike zone, making him difficult to strike out. But his biggest strides have been made behind the plate, where he exhibits good receiving skills and has worked to improve his throwing.

    Developing high school catchers takes time, and Jansen could ultimately require quite a bit of seasoning after missing crucial developmental time. However, his capacity to make adjustments gives scouts optimism that he'll continue to improve as he advances in the Minor Leagues. For now, though, Jansen simply needs to stay on the field.

    2017
    Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
    The Blue Jays signed Jansen for $100,000 as a 16th-rounder in 2013 out of the Wisconsin high school ranks. His development has been stalled by injuries since, however, as a broken bone in his left hand -- suffered on a hitter's follow-through -- derailed his first full season, and a broken hamate in his left hand sidelined him for nearly two months in 2016. Jansen made up for some of that lost time with a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, and he's impressed club officials with his progress this season while reaching Double-A in his first fully healthy campaign.

    A right-handed hitter, Jansen shows solid power potential thanks to a combination of bat speed and physical strength. He makes a lot of contact and has a good feel for the strike zone, making Jansen difficult to strike out, and he doesn't shy away from taking a walk. He's made impressive strides in his blocking and receiving since signing, all the while continuing to work on his framing and catch-and-throw skills.

    Developing high school catchers tends to take time, and that's certainly been the case with the oft-injured Jansen. His solid tools on both sides of the ball, as well as his capacity to make adjustments, portends to a career as at least a big league backup.


    I wasn't going to post 2016 and 2017 but I decided to since I found it funny that MLB Pipeline re-worded the same report for Jansen for the next 2 different years after 2015.




    Clutchlings (poster here, has a blog) - https://clutchlings.blogspot.ca/search?q=jansen

    2017-
    And lest you think Jansen is a bat-first player, it's his skills behind the plate that have won him accolades at every stop in his career. The 6'3"/225 Jansen presents a big target for pitchers, but he covers the lower half of the strike zone extremely well, which is important for hurlers who rely on the two-seamer that he has caught like Sean Reid-Foley, Conner Greene, and TJ Zeuch. Jansen is a superior blocker of balls in the dirt, and he has long been an excellent framer of pitches. His ability to work with pitchers and his leadership skills have also been lauded for some time now. Jansen has a strong, accurate arm - his infielders have to be on their toes when a runner attempts to steal, because Jansen's throw will arrive in a hurry and on the spot.

    2015-
    It's hard to explain why a player you have only seen brief glimpses of is a Just Missed kind of player, but Jansen truly is. Already a top-notch receiver, with game-calling, pitcher-handling, and pitch-framing skills beyond his years, Jansen has done much of what the organization has asked him to do - except stay healthy.

    2015- Despite that missed time, Jansen is emerging as a premium defender. He moves well for his size (6'2", 230) behind the plate. Jansen blocks balls in the dirt well, and is already an excellent framer of pitches. He's been lauded for his ability to handle pitchers, which is a skill which may not directly show up in box scores, but is one of the most important tools in a Catcher's kit.

    2014-
    Behind the plate, he projects to be at least an average defender. The advancement of his receiving skills are something of a surprise, given his relatively limited high school playing time. He's a good blocker of balls in the dirt, but his arm is graded as average. He has drawn raves for his maturity and ability to handle a pitching staff.

    2015-
    With only a relatively small sample size on his playing resume, he has already drawn rave reviews for his receiving skills, and has established himself as a decent hitter. Another overlooked high school player (from the non-baseball hotbed of Wisconsin - the most noted Dan Jansen from that state to this point is the former Olympic speed skater), Jansen missed the last month of the season with a knee injury, but all reports say that he is recovered and ready to go for spring training. He has excellent bat speed, and has been lauded for how he handles a pitching staff.


    I don't have a subscription to BA, BP, or Keith Law on ESPN, but I could go deeper here, it would likely be more or less the same.

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