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Thread: Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

  1. #3969
    All Star Terminator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baubau View Post
    Could you provide me a few examples? I am just looking over his trade history and see guys with a lot of value being moved. He certainly had his "amazing" trades like Donaldson and Travis but overall...
    Vernon Wells was one of his best trades.

    AA gets a lot of shit and a lot of it is deserved. I didn't like his process like most others here.

    But I didn't mind his aggressiveness. Sometimes it would get him in trouble (Synder) but other times it would be a boon (Donaldson). Overall he wasn't a horrible GM. Won us the division and set us up for contention for the following two years after he left. Long term I'm not sure how he would have played out though.

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  3. #3970
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    Vernon Wells was one of his best trades.

    AA gets a lot of shit and a lot of it is deserved. I didn't like his process like most others here.

    But I didn't mind his aggressiveness. Sometimes it would get him in trouble (Synder) but other times it would be a boon (Donaldson). Overall he wasn't a horrible GM. Won us the division and set us up for contention for the following two years after he left. Long term I'm not sure how he would have played out though.
    He was a decent GM cut from an antiquated cloth.
    "When I'm in a slump, I comfort myself by saying I believe in dinosaurs, then somewhere, dinosaurs they must be believing in me. And if they believe in me, then I can believe in me. Then I bust out." - Mookie Wilson

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  5. #3971
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    AA wanted the same things as Shatkins but just went about it in the exact opposite manner. He basically was betting on himself in every trade he made. In order to extend our window he'd have to keep hitting on Gose for Travis trades and keep drafting or signing Vlad Jr's and that was always an insanely risky plan.

    But I'm not really against trading the Nestor Molinas and Miguel Castros of the world after you pump their value for a couple months.

  6. #3972
    All Star Terminator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    AA wanted the same things as Shatkins but just went about it in the exact opposite manner. He basically was betting on himself in every trade he made. In order to extend our window he'd have to keep hitting on Gose for Travis trades and keep drafting or signing Vlad Jr's and that was always an insanely risky plan.

    But I'm not really against trading the Nestor Molinas and Miguel Castros of the world after you pump their value for a couple months.
    He had one huge fuckup but he also had some great deals. The Vernon Wells trade was probably a net 80+ million in surplus value.

  7. #3973
    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    He had one huge fuckup but he also had some great deals. The Vernon Wells trade was probably a net 80+ million in surplus value.
    He nets at a zero in his huge splashes. The Florida trade was something like a $120M net value deficit, Donaldson deal and Dickey deal probably wipe each other out.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    He nets at a zero in his huge splashes. The Florida trade was something like a $120M net value deficit, Donaldson deal and Dickey deal probably wipe each other out.
    I think Buehrle alone gave us more than everything we traded to the Marlins. Except Desclafani who is now good.

    *Yunel had to go because he said a bad word.

  10. #3975
    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    I think Buehrle alone gave us more than everything we traded to the Marlins. Except Desclafani who is now good.

    *Yunel had to go because he said a bad word.
    Last time I did a calculation the package sent had netted more fWAR than the Jays got...and the Jays paid a lot more salary.

    Since the trade Yunel 7.2, Disco 5.2, Hech 1.7, Alvarez 4.2, Marisnick 2.4, Nicolino 0.6. Only Yunel ran out of team control since then. 20.9 fWAR is like $150M for not very much total salary. Only good thing is that likely only Disco will put up much surplus moving forward.
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  11. #3976
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    Last time I did a calculation the package sent had netted more fWAR than the Jays got...and the Jays paid a lot more salary.

    Since the trade Yunel 7.2, Disco 5.2, Hech 1.7, Alvarez 4.2, Marisnick 2.4, Nicolino 0.6. Only Yunel ran out of team control since then. 20.9 fWAR is like $150M for not very much total salary. Only good thing is that likely only Disco will put up much surplus moving forward.
    Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

    I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.

  12. #3977
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    He nets at a zero in his huge splashes. The Florida trade was something like a $120M net value deficit, Donaldson deal and Dickey deal probably wipe each other out.
    To add, Yan Gomes also provided 7.8 WAR + his pitch framing was elite in 2013/2014, probably ended up at 10+ WAR (my math could be terribly wrong). Even if you add Aviles' -1.5 WAR for CLE, they still come out on top over Esmil Rogers' solid 0.2 WAR for the Jays.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

    I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.
    While the Marlin's also traded Desclafani, he is a solid no. 3 pitcher, already having 3.1 and 2 WAR seasons.

    I'd say AA lost a lot of players which had high value, more than he gained in his tenure. The rest of "we needed a push" / "he put us over the top" etc. I won't get into.

  13. #3978
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.
    Replacement level is 0.0 WAR
    "When I'm in a slump, I comfort myself by saying I believe in dinosaurs, then somewhere, dinosaurs they must be believing in me. And if they believe in me, then I can believe in me. Then I bust out." - Mookie Wilson

  14. #3979
    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

    I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.
    Surplus value is just adding WAR/$ calculations and subtracting payroll. Yunel did not have to go if the F.O. played the PR issues correctly. And 2 weeks after he was dealt to the Marlins because he had no value, he was flipped for a guy that has put up $22M in excess value. No one will ever be able to convince me that the Marlins trade was not a horrible poorly thought out trade.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
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  15. #3980
    Moderator Governator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    Surplus value is just adding WAR/$ calculations and subtracting payroll. Yunel did not have to go if the F.O. played the PR issues correctly. And 2 weeks after he was dealt to the Marlins because he had no value, he was flipped for a guy that has put up $22M in excess value. No one will ever be able to convince me that the Marlins trade was not a horrible poorly thought out trade.
    To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stangstag View Post
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  16. #3981
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    Quote Originally Posted by Governator View Post
    To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.
    He was only under contract for 1 year though and if he has a great/healthy season he would have gotten a huge contract.

  17. #3982
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    Quote Originally Posted by jays4life19 View Post
    He was only under contract for 1 year though and if he has a great/healthy season he would have gotten a huge contract.
    Well of course, but considering that was a pretty hyped year, a lot of people, myself included hoped he'd help get us to the postseason and with AA running the show could have got an extension if he met expectations.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stangstag View Post
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  18. #3983
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    Quote Originally Posted by Governator View Post
    Well of course, but considering that was a pretty hyped year, a lot of people, myself included hoped he'd help get us to the postseason and with AA running the show could have got an extension if he met expectations.
    I think a major part of the miscalculation was even if he did we were not a good enough team and had like no depth. Thus why they made the Dickey trade.

  19. #3984
    Hall of Famer burlingtonbandit's Avatar
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    AA is a pretty good executive. If he wasn't the Dodgers wouldn't have hired him. He's got very good negotiating skills and in this day and age its kind of rare to see a GM do everything so that can be pretty valuable.

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