Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[SAAviour]

AA ended 22 years of baseball purgatory, for that we should all be thankful....no matter how he did it.

[TheHurl]

To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.

He gave the Jays 4/10's of a win more than I predicted he would. Keep in mind with the Marlins players (and Dickey) projected at about 8 wins it still only brought the Jays up to an 83 or 84 win projection. Even if the best Josh Johnson showed up this was still probably not a team ready for a "difference maker".

[Boxcar]

is steamer even reliable when it comes to players with little track record in the majors? There's probably so much noise in his 2016 numbers

No, Steamer is absolutely terrible for projecting prospects.

[Boxcar]

"a bit"

It's a bit for Abom. Shoulder injuries are NBD, dawg.

[Governator]

He gave the Jays 4/10's of a win more than I predicted he would. Keep in mind with the Marlins players (and Dickey) projected at about 8 wins it still only brought the Jays up to an 83 or 84 win projection. Even if the best Josh Johnson showed up this was still probably not a team ready for a "difference maker".

You predicted JJ would be a replacement player?...

[jaysblue]

You predicted JJ would be a replacement player?...

JJ was coming off a 3 win season and it looked like his injuries were behind him after a healthy 2012 season. He posted 5.5 and 5.9 WAR in 2009 and 2010. The guy was a legit NL Cy Young contender during those two seasons. It was a risk that I didn't mind to be honest. If JJ stayed healthy and even matched his 2012 season, and pitching in the AL East, he easily gets a QO from the Jays and signs a big contract as a free agent somewhere, which nets the Jays a draft pick.

I understand how the Marlins trade really looks bad, though I can't think of anyone in that deal that I miss other than Anthony DeSclafani. And like I said, if JJ was healthy in 2013, trade looks totally different. The trade set things in motions to put the Jays in "win-now" mode and if it wasn't for that trade you probably don't see the Jays making the postseason in 2015 and 2016.

[KingKat]

The trade set things in motions to put the Jays in "win-now" mode and if it wasn't for that trade you probably don't see the Jays making the postseason in 2015 and 2016.

Going into "win now" mode at that point was dumber than dumb. It backed the Jays into a corner where they still had to add. They don't make the Marlins trade and there's no pressure to make the Dickey trade and neither of those trade did anything to help in 2015 and 2016. Certainly much less than another development year for their young pitchers would have.

[metafour]

The biggest problem with the Marlins trade was how much salary we took on. That led to the Dickey trade (his age meant that he'd come cheap for a "Cy Young" pitcher) and later led to the situation wherein we went into a season with Castro/Osuna/Pompey/Norris/Travis ALL being asked to fill major starter roles on a team that was trying to make the playoffs despite all of them being rookies (we had no payroll flexibility to fill all those holes elsewhere).

I'm not sure what ownership pressure he felt, but AA really flipped the switch from "building" to "going for it" way too early. Yes it got us into the playoffs, but it created a short window with a team that ultimately had too many holes to actually realistically win a championship.

[LGBJ29]

The biggest problem with the Marlins trade was how much salary we took on. That led to the Dickey trade (his age meant that he'd come cheap for a "Cy Young" pitcher) and later led to the situation wherein we went into a season with Castro/Osuna/Pompey/Norris/Travis ALL being asked to fill major starter roles on a team that was trying to make the playoffs despite all of them being rookies (we had no payroll flexibility to fill all those holes elsewhere).

I'm not sure what ownership pressure he felt, but AA really flipped the switch from "building" to "going for it" way too early. Yes it got us into the playoffs, but it created a short window with a team that ultimately had too many holes to actually realistically win a championship.

Gonna disagree here. I think the 2015 team was the strongest team in the post season. BABIP bad luck killed us in the championship series, but in no way was it a team with too many holes to realistically win a championship

[Bobthe4th]

Gonna disagree here. I think the 2015 team was the strongest team in the post season. BABIP bad luck killed us in the championship series, but in no way was it a team with too many holes to realistically win a championship

I agree, and even if people think we weren't, any team in the playoffs can win it all.

On any random day either team can win, even if it's Cubs vs Reds. It's the long season that weeds out the teams with less talent.

[glory]

Yeah I hate AA with a passion but that 2015 team should have won the World Series. The playoffs in baseball are a crap shoot and the Jays fell victim to the BABIP overlords known as the Royals.

[Krylian]

Yeah I hate AA with a passion but that 2015 team should have won the World Series. The playoffs in baseball are a crap shoot and the Jays fell victim to the BABIP overlords known as the Royals.

Why with a passion?

[glory]

Why with a passion?

Well that was probably too strong. I dislike Alex as a GM but the fan worship the guy has from bandwagon Jays fans turns it into hate for me. The way he built the team in 2013-15 you would think he was as old as Mike Ilitch.

[Brownie19]

I find it difficult to judge a GM without understanding all (or most) the circumstances behind his actions. There was a stark change in AA in 2014, which resulted in him building one of the top teams in baseball in the 2015 season. It wasn't built to be sustainable (which I think is something the naïve casuals don't seem to understand), but jesus, it provided the most entertaining 2 years of baseball I've ever experienced. My son (and likely thousands of kids across Canada) has developed a passion for the game because of the Jays recent success (one I can hope lasts a lifetime).

To suggest you hate AA with a passion for his efforts here is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.

[glory]

I find it difficult to judge a GM without understanding all (or most) the circumstances behind his actions. There was a stark change in AA in 2014, which resulted in him building one of the top teams in baseball in the 2015 season. It wasn't built to be sustainable (which I think is something the naïve casuals don't seem to understand), but jesus, it provided the most entertaining 2 years of baseball I've ever experienced. My son (and likely thousands of kids across Canada) has developed a passion for the game because of the Jays recent success (one I can hope lasts a lifetime).

To suggest you hate AA with a passion for his efforts here is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.

So let's trade more prospects for Votto then, so that kids everywhere (the same ones who will tune out the moment the team gets old and sucks) can have a memory for a year.

[glory]

Just to be clear, I loved the off-season AA had in 2015 (Donaldson, Travis, Martin, Saunders, etc). I hated 2013-14, and was kind of indifferent to 2010-12 since he was all over the place but at least seemed to have a long-term plan. Where 2015 went to mush was when Stro got hurt and since AA never accumulated any depth it lead to derpy moves left and right until he doubled down mid season.

I'm sorry, as nice as those two playoff appearances were (one of which he wasn't even around for), I'm not going to look past how he got there. I want a team that wins every year, or at least has a chance to. Not one that makes the playoffs once and then the GM leaves as a hero so he doesn't have to deal with the backloaded aftermath and detonated upper minors that he created/left behind.

Shapiro coming in saved the org.