Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[TheHurl]

He had one huge fuckup but he also had some great deals. The Vernon Wells trade was probably a net 80+ million in surplus value.

He nets at a zero in his huge splashes. The Florida trade was something like a $120M net value deficit, Donaldson deal and Dickey deal probably wipe each other out.

[MikeM]

He nets at a zero in his huge splashes. The Florida trade was something like a $120M net value deficit, Donaldson deal and Dickey deal probably wipe each other out.

I think Buehrle alone gave us more than everything we traded to the Marlins. Except Desclafani who is now good.

*Yunel had to go because he said a bad word.

[TheHurl]

I think Buehrle alone gave us more than everything we traded to the Marlins. Except Desclafani who is now good.

*Yunel had to go because he said a bad word.

Last time I did a calculation the package sent had netted more fWAR than the Jays got...and the Jays paid a lot more salary.

Since the trade Yunel 7.2, Disco 5.2, Hech 1.7, Alvarez 4.2, Marisnick 2.4, Nicolino 0.6. Only Yunel ran out of team control since then. 20.9 fWAR is like $150M for not very much total salary. Only good thing is that likely only Disco will put up much surplus moving forward.

[MikeM]

Last time I did a calculation the package sent had netted more fWAR than the Jays got...and the Jays paid a lot more salary.

Since the trade Yunel 7.2, Disco 5.2, Hech 1.7, Alvarez 4.2, Marisnick 2.4, Nicolino 0.6. Only Yunel ran out of team control since then. 20.9 fWAR is like $150M for not very much total salary. Only good thing is that likely only Disco will put up much surplus moving forward.

Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.

[baubau]

He nets at a zero in his huge splashes. The Florida trade was something like a $120M net value deficit, Donaldson deal and Dickey deal probably wipe each other out.

To add, Yan Gomes also provided 7.8 WAR + his pitch framing was elite in 2013/2014, probably ended up at 10+ WAR (my math could be terribly wrong). Even if you add Aviles' -1.5 WAR for CLE, they still come out on top over Esmil Rogers' solid 0.2 WAR for the Jays.

Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.

While the Marlin's also traded Desclafani, he is a solid no. 3 pitcher, already having 3.1 and 2 WAR seasons.

I'd say AA lost a lot of players which had high value, more than he gained in his tenure. The rest of "we needed a push" / "he put us over the top" etc. I won't get into.

[KingKat]

Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

Replacement level is 0.0 WAR

[TheHurl]

Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.

Surplus value is just adding WAR/$ calculations and subtracting payroll. Yunel did not have to go if the F.O. played the PR issues correctly. And 2 weeks after he was dealt to the Marlins because he had no value, he was flipped for a guy that has put up $22M in excess value. No one will ever be able to convince me that the Marlins trade was not a horrible poorly thought out trade.

[Governator]

Surplus value is just adding WAR/$ calculations and subtracting payroll. Yunel did not have to go if the F.O. played the PR issues correctly. And 2 weeks after he was dealt to the Marlins because he had no value, he was flipped for a guy that has put up $22M in excess value. No one will ever be able to convince me that the Marlins trade was not a horrible poorly thought out trade.

To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.

[jays4life19]

To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.

He was only under contract for 1 year though and if he has a great/healthy season he would have gotten a huge contract.

[Governator]

He was only under contract for 1 year though and if he has a great/healthy season he would have gotten a huge contract.

Well of course, but considering that was a pretty hyped year, a lot of people, myself included hoped he'd help get us to the postseason and with AA running the show could have got an extension if he met expectations.

[jays4life19]

Well of course, but considering that was a pretty hyped year, a lot of people, myself included hoped he'd help get us to the postseason and with AA running the show could have got an extension if he met expectations.

I think a major part of the miscalculation was even if he did we were not a good enough team and had like no depth. Thus why they made the Dickey trade.

[burlingtonbandit]

AA is a pretty good executive. If he wasn't the Dodgers wouldn't have hired him. He's got very good negotiating skills and in this day and age its kind of rare to see a GM do everything so that can be pretty valuable.

[SAAviour]

AA ended 22 years of baseball purgatory, for that we should all be thankful....no matter how he did it.

[TheHurl]

To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.

He gave the Jays 4/10's of a win more than I predicted he would. Keep in mind with the Marlins players (and Dickey) projected at about 8 wins it still only brought the Jays up to an 83 or 84 win projection. Even if the best Josh Johnson showed up this was still probably not a team ready for a "difference maker".

[Boxcar]

is steamer even reliable when it comes to players with little track record in the majors? There's probably so much noise in his 2016 numbers

No, Steamer is absolutely terrible for projecting prospects.

[Boxcar]

"a bit"

It's a bit for Abom. Shoulder injuries are NBD, dawg.