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Terminator (01-11-2017)
Last time I did a calculation the package sent had netted more fWAR than the Jays got...and the Jays paid a lot more salary.
Since the trade Yunel 7.2, Disco 5.2, Hech 1.7, Alvarez 4.2, Marisnick 2.4, Nicolino 0.6. Only Yunel ran out of team control since then. 20.9 fWAR is like $150M for not very much total salary. Only good thing is that likely only Disco will put up much surplus moving forward.
Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.
I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.
To add, Yan Gomes also provided 7.8 WAR + his pitch framing was elite in 2013/2014, probably ended up at 10+ WAR (my math could be terribly wrong). Even if you add Aviles' -1.5 WAR for CLE, they still come out on top over Esmil Rogers' solid 0.2 WAR for the Jays.
While the Marlin's also traded Desclafani, he is a solid no. 3 pitcher, already having 3.1 and 2 WAR seasons.
I'd say AA lost a lot of players which had high value, more than he gained in his tenure. The rest of "we needed a push" / "he put us over the top" etc. I won't get into.
Surplus value is just adding WAR/$ calculations and subtracting payroll. Yunel did not have to go if the F.O. played the PR issues correctly. And 2 weeks after he was dealt to the Marlins because he had no value, he was flipped for a guy that has put up $22M in excess value. No one will ever be able to convince me that the Marlins trade was not a horrible poorly thought out trade.
AA is a pretty good executive. If he wasn't the Dodgers wouldn't have hired him. He's got very good negotiating skills and in this day and age its kind of rare to see a GM do everything so that can be pretty valuable.
AA ended 22 years of baseball purgatory, for that we should all be thankful....no matter how he did it.
He gave the Jays 4/10's of a win more than I predicted he would. Keep in mind with the Marlins players (and Dickey) projected at about 8 wins it still only brought the Jays up to an 83 or 84 win projection. Even if the best Josh Johnson showed up this was still probably not a team ready for a "difference maker".
KingKat (01-12-2017)
Spanky99 (01-12-2017)