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Thread: Blue Jays ZIPS projections

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    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Blue Jays ZIPS projections

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-...nto-blue-jays/




    Stole this from someone that already took the time to write it up)

    1. 2B Travis 471pa, 113ops+, 2.9war, 4.0war/650
    2. 3B Donaldson 657pa, 141ops+, 7.0war, 6.9war/650
    3. 1B
    4. DH Morales 557pa, 115ops+, 2.0war, 2.3war/650
    5. SS Tulowitzki 481pa, 106ops+, 3.3war, 4.5war/650
    6. C Martin 462pa, 102ops+, 3.1war, 4.4war/650
    7. CF Pillar 609pa, 92ops+, 3.2war, 3.4war/650
    8. RF Pompey 497pa, 76ops+, 0.8war, 1.1war/650
    9. LF Carrera 381pa, 81ops+, 0.6war, 1.0war/650
    B. UT Smoak 387pa, 97ops+, 0.4war, 0.7war/650
    B. OF Upton 433pa, 77ops+, 0.4war, 0.6war/650
    B. IF Goins 425pa, 61ops+, 0.0war, 0.0war/650
    B. C Jimenez 240pa, 74ops+, 0.9war, 2.4war/650
    B. UT Tellez 514pa, 102ops+, 0.7war, 0.9war/650
    B. IF Gurriel 567pa, 102ops+, 1.7war, 2.0war/650
    X Encarnacion 576pa, 137ops+, 3.6war, 4.1war/650
    X Bautista 510pa, 134ops+, 3.1war, 4.0war/650
    X Saunders 427pa, 112ops+, 1.7war, 2.6war/650
    SP Sanchez 31gs, 78era-, 86fip-, 4.6war, 4.8war/32gs
    SP Estrada 29gs, 89era-, 102fip-, 3.1war, 3.4war/32gs
    SP Stroman 23gs, 92era-, 85fip-, 2.2war, 3.1war/32gs
    SP Happ 27gs, 92era-, 93fip-, 2.5war, 3.0war/32gs
    SP Liriano 28gs, 98era-, 102fip-, 2.0war, 2.3war/32gs
    SP Bolsinger 20gs, 107era-, 101fip-, 0.9war, 1.4war/32gs
    SP Reid-Foley 24gs, 121era-, 117fip-, 0.0war, 0.0war/32gs
    RP Osuna 71.2ip, 64era-, 71fip-, 1.4war, 1.3war/65ip
    RP Barnes 66.1ip, 82era-, 78fip-, 0.7war, 0.7war/65ip
    RP Biagini 66.2ip, 88era-, 90fip-, 0.5war, 0.5war/65ip
    RP Grilli 41.1ip, 86era-, 88fip-, 0.3war, 0.5war/65ip
    RP Tepera 61.0ip, 93era-, 96fip-, 0.3war, 0.3war/65ip
    RP Loup 48.0ip, 92era-, 95fip-, 0.2war, 0.3war/65ip
    RP Campos 58.1ip, 93era-, 90fip-, 0.2war, 0.2war/65ip
    RP Leone 62.0ip, 105era-, 97fip-, -0.1war, -0.1war/65ip
    RP Girodo 56.1ip, 112era-, 111fip-, -0.3war, -0.4war/65ip
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
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    This is a playoff team if we get 2+ WAR from 1B and the corner outfield spots. Hopefully we can do that.

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    Hall of Famer Orgfiller's Avatar
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    Interesting how well AJ Jimenez projects in terms of value despite his offense being regarded as garbage. This can't be just regular positional adjustment can it?
    Quote Originally Posted by LetTheBallFly View Post
    Synder is mediocre at best this year. Let me know when Synder is giving up less runs per game than Sanchez, until then I'll take Sanchez

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    All Star Terminator's Avatar
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    Wow, if we fill our lineup holes with capable people we are looking great according to Zips.

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    DONOR jays4life19's Avatar
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    Really really nice Sanchez projection.

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    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orgfiller View Post
    Interesting how well AJ Jimenez projects in terms of value despite his offense being regarded as garbage. This can't be just regular positional adjustment can it?
    They seem to have him rated higher defensively than Martin. Not at all from what I've seen/heard. Essentially they have around Rene Rivera defensively.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
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    So we have a total of 40.5 WAR (88.5 wins) with our 5 infielders, Pillar, Morales, the rotation, and the top 5 relievers. If we can add decent players at our 3 open positions and a couple of good relievers then we could definitely project for 95 wins. I wouldn't be comfortable predicting that, but it's nice to see.

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    Hall of Famer Orgfiller's Avatar
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    Something to note is the Morales' defensive contribution is rated as a 0, rather than negative. He basically projects for a win higher than last year despite the same offensive output, so probably take the under there unless he exceeds his offensive projection (possible in a better ballpark suited to his profile perhaps?). Not entirely sold on Travis, but 2.9 WAR is not an exaggeration.

    Don't have any problems with the rotation, I would take the over on Stroman and Liriano could fluctuate massively in either direction, maybe a slight under on Sanchez.
    Quote Originally Posted by LetTheBallFly View Post
    Synder is mediocre at best this year. Let me know when Synder is giving up less runs per game than Sanchez, until then I'll take Sanchez

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    Interesting thanks!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grant77 View Post
    So we have a total of 40.5 WAR (88.5 wins) with our 5 infielders, Pillar, Morales, the rotation, and the top 5 relievers. If we can add decent players at our 3 open positions and a couple of good relievers then we could definitely project for 95 wins. I wouldn't be comfortable predicting that, but it's nice to see.
    Who all did or didn't you use to arrive at that number?

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    Pillar a consistent 3+ WAR producer projecting that again. I know its mostly from D, but few including myself, thought he would never be more than a 4th OF. Pretty cool. Wish he could hit lol

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    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orgfiller View Post
    Don't have any problems with the rotation, I would take the over on Stroman and Liriano could fluctuate massively in either direction, maybe a slight under on Sanchez.
    Player over/under. This year's contest?
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
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    Hall of Famer burlingtonbandit's Avatar
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    Resign Bautista, sign Fowler/ platoon bat for RF and this is a pretty good team. Zips seems quite high on a few players though.

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    Sign Fowler and Pearce, trade for Granderson, sign a reliever. Not sure how much that will cost, but would put the Jays in a good spot.

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    Hall of Famer Orgfiller's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    Player over/under. This year's contest?
    I'm pretty comfortable in saying that the participation in such a contest would be high.
    Quote Originally Posted by LetTheBallFly View Post
    Synder is mediocre at best this year. Let me know when Synder is giving up less runs per game than Sanchez, until then I'll take Sanchez

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    Quote Originally Posted by Orgfiller View Post
    I'm pretty comfortable in saying that the participation in such a contest would be high.
    Yup I would definitely think so

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