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Thread: Blue Jays ZIPS projections

  1. #33
    DONOR | Super Moderator G-Snarls's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    Another year where an extra $15-20M in budget could make us the AL favourites.

    My whole life I've heard the "If we're contending, Rogers will give us the money to get us over the top" mantra. Is this not exactly that scenario? And last year as well?
    Who would you have signed or traded for with that money?

  2. #34
    Moderator KingKat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    Steamer predictions for WAR:

    Smoak 0.1 in 115 games
    Pearce 1.3 in 91 games
    Smoak gets more playing time than Pearce just so he can provide replacement level production. Gibby needs clear instruction to NOT allow this to happen.
    "if this board died it would objectively be a good thing - NJH"

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKat View Post
    Smoak gets more playing time than Pearce just so he can provide replacement level production. Gibby needs clear instruction to NOT allow this to happen.
    Shatkins needed clear instructions not to extend Smoak.

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    If anything happens to Donaldson = Season over.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nafro View Post
    I was kind of under the impression adding up a teams total projected WAR to predict outcome of season was not a great idea.
    It's a terrible prediction tool for team wins because no team will have the same 25 man all the way through, and they are predictions so they will be wrong in part because because it's impossible to predict the variables like injuries and playing time.

    However, it's still an interesting tool to use as evidence against anyone trying to say the Jays have got a lot worse, and it'll be interesting to see in a year how accurate the predicted WAR values are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    It's a terrible prediction tool for team wins because no team will have the same 25 man all the way through, and they are predictions so they will be wrong in part because because it's impossible to predict the variables like injuries and playing time.

    However, it's still an interesting tool to use as evidence against anyone trying to say the Jays have got a lot worse, and it'll be interesting to see in a year how accurate the predicted WAR values are.
    That seems reasonable.

  7. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    Steamer predictions for WAR:

    Martin 2.5 in 116 games (Actual 1.8 in 91)
    Saltalamacchia N/A (not yet updated as he's on 0 games, they have Graterol and AJ sharing backup duties at a combined 0.1 WAR in 31 games) (Actual -1.5 in 117 combined from back up catchers)

    Smoak 0.1 in 115 games (Actual 3.4 in 158)
    Pearce 1.3 in 91 games (Actual 0.0 in 92)

    Travis 1.8 in 117 games (Actual 0.6 in 50)
    Barney 0.2 in 38 games (Actual -0.6 in 129)
    (Goins 0.0 in 36 games) (Actual -0.3 in 143)

    Donaldson 6.1 in 145 games (Actual 5.0 in 113)

    Tulowitzki 2.8 in 119 games (Actual 0.0 in 66)

    Upton 0.2 in 88 games (N/A)
    Pillar 2.8 in 134 games (Actual 1.9 in 154)
    Bautista 2.6 in 124 games (Actual -0.5 in 157)
    Carrera 0.0 in 50 games (Actual 0.7 in 131)
    (Pompey 0.5 in 57 games) (Actual 1.3 in 69 from other outfielders)

    Morales 0.8 in 129 games (Actual -0.6 in 150)

    Sanchez 3.0 (Actual 0.0)
    Stroman 3.1 (Actual 3.4)
    Happ 2.5 (Actual 2.9)
    Estrada 1.4 (Actual 2.6)
    Liriano 2.2 (Actual 0.8)
    (Other starters = -0.1)

    Osuna 0.9 (Actual 2.9)
    Grilli 0.5 (Actual -0.7)
    Biagini 0.5 (Actual 1.1)
    Howell 0.2 (Actual -0.2)
    Floyd 0.1 (N/A)
    Loup 0.4 (Actual 0.6)
    Sparkman 0.2 (Actual 0.0)
    Barnes 0.4 (Actual 0.2)
    Bolsinger 0.5 (Actual -0.4)
    Dermody 0.0 (Actual 0.0)
    Tepera 0.2 (Actual 1.0)
    Girodo 0.0 (N/A)
    Schultz 0.1(N/A)
    (Other relievers = 2.2)

    Overall position players let us down massively (only Smoak and Carrera exceeded their projections). The bullpen was pretty good, and the starting pitchers were overall pretty much as expected minus Sanchez.

    Nothing we didn't already know, but interesting to see it in actual numbers!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    Martin 2.5 in 116 games (Actual 1.8 in 91)
    Saltalamacchia N/A (not yet updated as he's on 0 games, they have Graterol and AJ sharing backup duties at a combined 0.1 WAR in 31 games) (Actual -1.5 in 117 combined from back up catchers)

    Smoak 0.1 in 115 games (Actual 3.4 in 158)
    Pearce 1.3 in 91 games (Actual 0.0 in 92)

    Travis 1.8 in 117 games (Actual 0.6 in 50)
    Barney 0.2 in 38 games (Actual -0.6 in 129)
    (Goins 0.0 in 36 games) (Actual -0.3 in 143)

    Donaldson 6.1 in 145 games (Actual 5.0 in 113)

    Tulowitzki 2.8 in 119 games (Actual 0.0 in 66)

    Upton 0.2 in 88 games (N/A)
    Pillar 2.8 in 134 games (Actual 1.9 in 154)
    Bautista 2.6 in 124 games (Actual -0.5 in 157)
    Carrera 0.0 in 50 games (Actual 0.7 in 131)
    (Pompey 0.5 in 57 games) (Actual 1.3 in 69 from other outfielders)

    Morales 0.8 in 129 games (Actual -0.6 in 150)

    Sanchez 3.0 (Actual 0.0)
    Stroman 3.1 (Actual 3.4)
    Happ 2.5 (Actual 2.9)
    Estrada 1.4 (Actual 2.6)
    Liriano 2.2 (Actual 0.8)
    (Other starters = -0.1)

    Osuna 0.9 (Actual 2.9)
    Grilli 0.5 (Actual -0.7)
    Biagini 0.5 (Actual 1.1)
    Howell 0.2 (Actual -0.2)
    Floyd 0.1 (N/A)
    Loup 0.4 (Actual 0.6)
    Sparkman 0.2 (Actual 0.0)
    Barnes 0.4 (Actual 0.2)
    Bolsinger 0.5 (Actual -0.4)
    Dermody 0.0 (Actual 0.0)
    Tepera 0.2 (Actual 1.0)
    Girodo 0.0 (N/A)
    Schultz 0.1(N/A)
    (Other relievers = 2.2)

    Overall position players let us down massively (only Smoak and Carrera exceeded their projections). The bullpen was pretty good, and the starting pitchers were overall pretty much as expected minus Sanchez.

    Nothing we didn't already know, but interesting to see it in actual numbers!
    Holy shit like every hitter sucked. Like you said, interesting to see it in numbers vs projections.

    Our SP was pretty great actually.

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