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Thread: Trade for Andrew McCutchen (NJH #7)

  1. #97
    Big Leaguer Dick_Pole's Avatar
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    *Came to this thread in interest, noticing 5 pages added in the last 24 hours so there must be some relevant rumour or something. Left in disgust after page three, discovering this is just going to be another argument about Travis Snider*

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    Hall of Famer Dr. Dinger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dick_Pole View Post
    *Came to this thread in interest, noticing 5 pages added in the last 24 hours so there must be some relevant rumour or something. Left in disgust after page three, discovering this is just going to be another argument about Travis Snider*
    Actually you'd be surprised.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dick_Pole View Post
    *Came to this thread in interest, noticing 5 pages added in the last 24 hours so there must be some relevant rumour or something. Left in disgust after page three, discovering this is just going to be another argument about Travis Snider*
    Same here lmao.

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    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reedjohnsonfan View Post
    I thought we could have a nice conversation about how you came up with some of your numbers, but I guess you're not entirely sure about some things.

    It's fine.
    Did you take and pass econ in high school?
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

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    Big Leaguer reedjohnsonfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GD View Post
    Did you take and pass econ in high school?
    It was a basic question that I was asking if that's what you meant, I agree. That's why I found it surprising he didn't want to give the 1 sentence answer it would require. Too bad.

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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reedjohnsonfan View Post
    I know what inflation is, but my question is:

    how much do you think 1 WAR will cost in 2020?
    how much do you think 1 WAR (projected) in 2020 costs today?

    Those are two separate values. Which one is he estimating to be 10,500,000?
    What in the fuck?

    I read this 4 times, can someone explain this to me?
    Quote Originally Posted by BTS View Post
    Holy shit, I'm dumn.

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    DONOR BTS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    What in the fuck?

    I read this 4 times, can someone explain this to me?
    He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but shit posts himself.
    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    Unfortunately, they really skimped out on the crickets on mine because they add a pretty flavourful crunch element on top of the coleslaw.

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  9. #104
    Big Leaguer Dick_Pole's Avatar
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    Oh for fuck's sake...

    What this guy is asking is similar to the time value of money question, if you've taken any finance/economic courses.

    For instance, $10,000 in 2020 is equivalent to $6,830 in today's dollars, assuming a 10% discount rate over 4 years. The calculation is $10,000/(1.10^4) where 1.10 is 1+the interest rate. You would rather take $7,000 today than $10,000 in 2020 because the assumption is you can put it in the bank and earn 10% interest a year (maybe in 1980, not today) and come out with $10,250. This is different from inflation, though the two topics are strongly related when you're making investment decisions.

    Now I don't know if it makes any sense to apply the time value of money to WAR calculations. Measuring the value of a World Series win in 2017 versus one in 2020 to the franchise today is not as easy of an exercise as putting your money in the bank at a "risk free" rate.

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    Big Leaguer Dick_Pole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BTS View Post
    He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but shit posts himself.
    Yes, this question did really come off as the snide jackass in university who likes to show off how smart he is by asking the professor an "intelligent" question. Meanwhile everyone is just annoyed by the interruption, including the lecturer.

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    Big Leaguer reedjohnsonfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dick_Pole View Post
    Oh for fuck's sake...

    What this guy is asking is similar to the time value of money question, if you've taken any finance/economic courses.

    For instance, $10,000 in 2020 is equivalent to $6,830 in today's dollars, assuming a 10% discount rate over 4 years. The calculation is $10,000/(1.10^4) where 1.10 is 1+the interest rate. You would rather take $7,000 today than $10,000 in 2020 because the assumption is you can put it in the bank and earn 10% interest a year (maybe in 1980, not today) and come out with $10,250. This is different from inflation, though the two topics are strongly related when you're making investment decisions.

    Now I don't know if it makes any sense to apply the time value of money to WAR calculations. Measuring the value of a World Series win in 2017 versus one in 2020 to the franchise today is not as easy of an exercise as putting your money in the bank at a "risk free" rate.
    Yeah I don't know. It was a pretty basic question.

    Dr_Dinger posted some number evaluating contract surplus, so I asked (in a nutshell) where he got that number from and if it takes discounting into account- it was a legitimate question and not intended to come across in poor taste. Obviously there's lots of problems evaluating contract value, etc, but he was attempting to value McCutchen vs Quintana so I figured I'd ask about his method.

    It's a shame people seemed to have trouble understanding that. Oh well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dick_Pole View Post
    Yes, this question did really come off as the snide jackass in university who likes to show off how smart he is by asking the professor an "intelligent" question. Meanwhile everyone is just annoyed by the interruption, including the lecturer.
    Didn't intend that, apologies if that was the case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BTS View Post
    He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but shit posts himself.

    Wow you just don't stop do you?

    You guys are attempting to value players. Obviously what a player provides in 5 years isn't as valuable as what he provides next year. I basically asked if his estimates took that into account... it's not trying to sound smart, it's a pretty straightforward question I had about his table of values.

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    Quote Originally Posted by reedjohnsonfan View Post
    Wow you just don't stop do you?

    You guys are attempting to value players. Obviously what a player provides in 5 years isn't as valuable as what he provides next year. I basically asked if his estimates took that into account... it's not trying to sound smart, it's a pretty straightforward question I had about his table of values.
    You bring this type of thing up often when people throw guesses on the long-term value of a contract. I think you understand that there's no way of knowing how individual teams will account for their current spot on the win curve, or how they'll value 2020 wins relative to 2017 wins. Everyone else in the conversation understands that it's all back of napkin math: estimates with known unknowns that facilitate conversation. You pop in from time to time and snarkily point out what everyone knows: that this is all rough math for discussion purposes. You're very much the annoying pedant in a lecture that won't shut the fuck up about minutiae.
    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    Unfortunately, they really skimped out on the crickets on mine because they add a pretty flavourful crunch element on top of the coleslaw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BTS View Post
    You bring this type of thing up often when people throw guesses on the long-term value of a contract. I think you understand that there's no way of knowing how individual teams will account for their current spot on the win curve, or how they'll value 2020 wins relative to 2017 wins. Everyone else in the conversation understands that it's all back of napkin math: estimates with known unknowns that facilitate conversation. You pop in from time to time and snarkily point out what everyone knows: that this is all rough math for discussion purposes. You're very much the annoying pedant in a lecture that won't shut the fuck up about minutiae.
    To be fair some of those factors are probably the most important piece of a team's valuation. I actually liked how Dinger adjusted McCutchen's war to see how that affected the value. You could also, for example, reduce the $/war value (effectively discounting future years value) to see if a lot of Quintana's surplus comes in future years, it would be a simple adjustment to his very nice table.

    In our past exchange we touched on it, but sometimes taking these values as gospel rather than recognizing a huge uncertainty plagues the forum.

    Regarding how they see their spot in the win curve, it seems most team care about that a lot. That particular point is pertinent this offseason on a Blue Jays forum, as they seem to be not doing it at all...

    I do agree, despite almost always defending RJF that his targeted question approach was the wrong one!

    Anyway, on net I think this thread has been a good one, as long as you delete page 3!

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    Ok which one of you asked this in the BP Chat?

    ---

    PompeyCanuck (Ottawa): Do you think that the White Sox, Blue Jays, & Pirates could find a 3 team deal that would send McCutcheon to the Jays, Quintana to the Pirates, and prospects to the White Sox? (I ask as I think the Jays want McCutcheon, but don't really have what the Pirates would want in return)

    Bryan Grosnick: So, I think that Quintana is obviously the highest-value guy in the deal right now ... which is bananas to think about from a start-of-2016 point of view. So the Pirates toss a guy to the Sox such as ... Taillon, maybe? The Jays would certainly have to send Reid-Foley as well as either Alford and/or Guerrero to the White Sox ... so it probably comes down to who the Sox' scouts like, and whether or not they'd want someone who is closer to the bigs or further away.

    If I'm the Sox, I go for a premium prospect in the mold of a Giolito or Moncada ... a true Top 10 guy ... if I'm dealing Quintana. I don't play around with quantity over quality.

  21. #112
    All Star Sammy225's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dinger View Post
    Ok which one of you asked this in the BP Chat?

    ---

    PompeyCanuck (Ottawa): Do you think that the White Sox, Blue Jays, & Pirates could find a 3 team deal that would send McCutcheon to the Jays, Quintana to the Pirates, and prospects to the White Sox? (I ask as I think the Jays want McCutcheon, but don't really have what the Pirates would want in return)

    Bryan Grosnick: So, I think that Quintana is obviously the highest-value guy in the deal right now ... which is bananas to think about from a start-of-2016 point of view. So the Pirates toss a guy to the Sox such as ... Taillon, maybe? The Jays would certainly have to send Reid-Foley as well as either Alford and/or Guerrero to the White Sox ... so it probably comes down to who the Sox' scouts like, and whether or not they'd want someone who is closer to the bigs or further away.

    If I'm the Sox, I go for a premium prospect in the mold of a Giolito or Moncada ... a true Top 10 guy ... if I'm dealing Quintana. I don't play around with quantity over quality.
    From Ottawa obviously it is BTS.

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