Originally Posted by
JaysFan4Ever
I've read a number of articles about him, heard some audio talks about him. Some say he could force the Jays' hand if he has a good spring, and a good start in AAA, and the output at 1B isn't what they're looking/hoping for. That might mean trying to find a taker on Smoak and his salary, or DFA, trying to get him to AAA, so he will either take the assignment, or forfeit his contact, if I'm recalling it correctly.
I haven't seen him play defensively, and he's seemed to have had a decent OBP throughout his minor league career, starting to hit for power, and doubles, so if he keeps it up, he might be a September call up, at least, if not, up sooner if there's an injury. I would assume if he reports overweight (if they haven't already) the Jays will tell him to work on losing some weight before any potential call up and work on it in AAA.
I agree with many that I see him in AAA for a full season, 1) to have him prove he can play at the higher level, 2) his age, he'll only be 22 and you don't want to expose him unless he's tearing it up, 3) keep the arbitration and FA clock from starting, 4) don't want to have to burn an option if you don't have to, 5) we have basically 3 1B/DH kind of guys right now. If he's putting up a good year, say midway through, his defense is at least average, and the Jays need some help because say the platoon isn't working out, or there is an injury, I could see him coming up. Ultimately, I see him playing a year in AAA, then maybe a Sept call up, or possibly forcing the Jays' to consider him next year depending on the situation.
No one can predict how someone will translate into the majors. We've seen guys who've had great numbers in the minors, come up, wind up AAAA players at best. If I'm making the call, I'd say stick in him AAA all year to see how he plays, if he has a good year, debate if he's worthy to get a promotion in September, or come up in the event of an injury. If his defense can be at least average, and his bat continues like it did last year into AAA, and the bigs, he could be a decent option to have either as someone who takes over in a platoon situation against RHP, at least at initially, and maybe full time in a year or two, either when Pearce's contract is up, and/or Smoak's option is declined. Worse case, he puts up a strong ST, makes the Jays' keep an eye on him, and kind of makes someone like Smoak keep an eye over his shoulder, and pick up his game, knowing the Jays might go to someone else.
Long story short. As it stands now, I see him in AAA all year, unless there's an injury (probably long term, since they might be able to hold onto both Barney and Goins, either on the 25 man somehow, or Goins clears waivers and winds up in AAA, and either one of them play 1B short term, e.g. someone goes on the 10-day DL), or production from Smoak sucks and they say, let's give Tellez a shot, since, at worse, he's no better than Smoak, and we can at least get a look, and tell him what to work on. Then maybe becomes a September call up. I think with the 3 guys who are at 1B/DH, he'll have to really earn his way on the team this year, and if the questions people, well some people, have brought up about his defense are a concern to the Jays, he'll likely be instructed in ST and/or AAA on how to improve and/or to lose weight if that's a factor. I see him as a dark horse, but if he has a solid year in AAA this year, he could force the Jays' hand more likely next year, than this year, but could force their hand this year if there's a long term injury to Pearce, Smoak, Morales, or one of them (likely Smoak), just isn't being as productive as needed. They'll likely keep him in AAA all year to see how he handles it, since it's as close to the bigs as you can get (still a big jump, even with the best prospects, AAAA players, guys who were in the bigs, but options/outrighted, have experience), and if he forces their hand, or they need him, he gets a shot. But I think full year in AAA, will get some help on defense, since, and this is coming from someone who's played 1B against some tough competition, it's not as easy as they say, and in the bigs, you'll need to be at least average. OK, I'm done. Sorry for being so long in my "long story short." lol
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