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Thread: General 2017 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Of course not. Just pointing out the risk of Cutch/Vlad being a repeat of Dickey/Thor. Quite a risk to take even with Cutch making this team a 2nd tier contender (behind teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Nats, Mets).
    lol, i read this exact comment on Reddit accidentally when I was trying to get to the news
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  2. #82
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    Cutch's bat might bounce back but the baserunning and defence is less likely to. And if he bounces back he's going to leave in 2 years. I don't even think AA makes this trade unless PIT is giving him away.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LetTheBallFly View Post
    I don't think Pittsburgh would even consider straight up based on some of their reported asking prices. It just reminds me too much of the Dickey deal. Just way too much risk to be dealing top prospects for...
    I don't think they would either. I mean worst comes to worst for Pitts is he plays for 2 more years as a 4-5 win player potentially and the get a draft pick.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Of course not. Just pointing out the risk of Cutch/Vlad being a repeat of Dickey/Thor. Quite a risk to take even with Cutch making this team a 2nd tier contender (behind teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Nats, Mets).
    Gotcha.

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orgfiller View Post
    Right, my bad. I just wanted to use some generic bust with okay upside in the system that isn't worth anything.
    The name you're searching for is D.J. Davis...

  6. #86
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    Perception is interesting on things. Time of the Dickey for Thor trade. Jays were projected for 79 wins and Snydergaard was a top 30 prospect in baseball when they traded for three years of Dickey who was projected for 2.5 wins....and the Jays threw in a top 25 prospect in TdA. Vlad is a 17 year old borderline top 100 prospect and the Jays are projected for 84 wins and many don't want them to trade for 2 years of Cutch who is projected for 3.5 wins.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    You have to realize we have a real life celebrity who posts on our boards Roy firestone.

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  8. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    Perception is interesting on things. Time of the Dickey for Thor trade. Jays were projected for 79 wins and Snydergaard was a top 30 prospect in baseball when they traded for three years of Dickey who was projected for 2.5 wins....and the Jays threw in a top 25 prospect in TdA. Vlad is a 17 year old borderline top 100 prospect and the Jays are projected for 84 wins and many don't want them to trade for 2 years of Cutch who is projected for 3.5 wins.
    Let's add to this that the Jays at the time of the Dickey trade had multiple pitching prospects and were regarded by many as having the best crop of pitching prospects in the majors - dealing from a position of surplus. They don't have that today wrt position players.

    Not defending the Dickey trade, just to be clear.

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  10. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    Perception is interesting on things. Time of the Dickey for Thor trade. Jays were projected for 79 wins and Snydergaard was a top 30 prospect in baseball when they traded for three years of Dickey who was projected for 2.5 wins....and the Jays threw in a top 25 prospect in TdA. Vlad is a 17 year old borderline top 100 prospect and the Jays are projected for 84 wins and many don't want them to trade for 2 years of Cutch who is projected for 3.5 wins.
    The Dickey move was widely panned and the Vlad move would probably be similarly panned. Not to trying to shit on your theory but I'm not sure what has changed other than the Front Offices. :P

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Let's add to this that the Jays at the time of the Dickey trade had multiple pitching prospects and were regarded by many as having the best crop of pitching prospects in the majors - dealing from a position of surplus. They don't have that today wrt position players.
    And of course the Jays were locked up at catcher for the next 15 years with JPA.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    You have to realize we have a real life celebrity who posts on our boards Roy firestone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    And of course the Jays were locked up at catcher for the next 15 years with JPA.
    lol... your snark is certainly up on the #1 title rank, love it.

  15. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    The Dickey move was widely panned and the Vlad move would probably be similarly panned. Not to trying to shit on your theory but I'm not sure what has changed other than the Front Offices. :P
    The move was widely panned because it was 2 top 30 prospects for a pitcher coming off their best season ever (and really was only under contract for 1 more year from the Mets point of view on things. This would be paying under market value for a guy that had the worst season of their career. If the Jays believe that Cutch is a 3.5 win player as he's projected for (remember that AA was trading essentially for a guy that was a 5 win player that he said he thought would get even better) it's probably a bargain to get him for a single prospect.

    Comparable trade for an OF which is projected for 3.5 wins and two years left on their contract would be
    Upton from the Braves to the Padres for a top 50 spect (Fried) a top 100 prospect (Jace Peterson) and two top 200 prospects (Smith and other Peterson). Padres were thought to get a steal in that deal. But Upton is younger and not coming off a bad season so we'll ignore that one.

    1.5 years of Cespedes (who would have been projected as much lower than Cutch) was traded for a pitcher having a Cy Young season (Lester), and then was traded again for future Cy Young award winner (Porcello) who had averaged over 2 fWAR at age 26. Finally was dealt with 1 year left on his contract for Top 50 prospect (who went on to win rookie of the year).

    Hunter Pence with 2.5 years left on his contract was traded for a top 75 prospect (Cosart), a top 40 prospect (Singleton), And a 17 year old prospect who was playing in low A.

    If Vlad is the only big piece in the deal it's about what can be expected (or lower) for two years of an OF projected around where Cutch is. It's more what do you think Cutch will be. But if Vlad Jr. wasn't a Jr. and just a really high priced international signee who had a good debut, I don't think there would be the same fight back.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
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  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    The move was widely panned because it was 2 top 30 prospects for a pitcher coming off their best season ever (and really was only under contract for 1 more year from the Mets point of view on things. This would be paying under market value for a guy that had the worst season of their career. If the Jays believe that Cutch is a 3.5 win player as he's projected for (remember that AA was trading essentially for a guy that was a 5 win player that he said he thought would get even better) it's probably a bargain to get him for a single prospect.

    Comparable trade for an OF which is projected for 3.5 wins and two years left on their contract would be
    Upton from the Braves to the Padres for a top 50 spect (Fried) a top 100 prospect (Jace Peterson) and two top 200 prospects (Smith and other Peterson). Padres were thought to get a steal in that deal. But Upton is younger and not coming off a bad season so we'll ignore that one.

    1.5 years of Cespedes (who would have been projected as much lower than Cutch) was traded for a pitcher having a Cy Young season (Lester), and then was traded again for future Cy Young award winner (Porcello) who had averaged over 2 fWAR at age 26. Finally was dealt with 1 year left on his contract for Top 50 prospect (who went on to win rookie of the year).

    Hunter Pence with 2.5 years left on his contract was traded for a top 75 prospect (Cosart), a top 40 prospect (Singleton), And a 17 year old prospect who was playing in low A.

    If Vlad is the only big piece in the deal it's about what can be expected (or lower) for two years of an OF projected around where Cutch is. It's more what do you think Cutch will be. But if Vlad Jr. wasn't a Jr. and just a really high priced international signee who had a good debut, I don't think there would be the same fight back.
    It's not just the name/bloodline, its what he did as a 17 yr old in his first professional year. For a guy on the wrong side of 30, who becomes a UFA after 2018?

  18. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    It's not just the name/bloodline, its what he did as a 17 yr old in his first professional year. For a guy on the wrong side of 30, who becomes a UFA after 2018?
    Wrong side of 30 isn't just turned 30 this past October. It's nearing 35 or later... mmmmkay! FWIW... I'm on the fence.

  19. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    It's not just the name/bloodline, its what he did as a 17 yr old in his first professional year. For a guy on the wrong side of 30, who becomes a UFA after 2018?
    Just a list of similar seasons at that age (purely looking at wRC+).

    Nomar Mazara
    Jhailyn Ortiz
    Wander Javier (super small sample size because of injury)
    Ronald Guzman
    Miguel Sano
    Gary Sanchez
    Starling Heredia
    Rafael Rodriguez
    Johnathan Sierra
    Joel Guzman
    Gilberto Celestino
    Nelson Gomez
    Suely Matias
    Phillips Castillo

    That's just by searching the highest International bonuses. I like Vlad Jr. a lot. The K-Rate super impresses me. But there is nothing yet that leads us to believe he's an untradeable generational talent. His name is part of the helium on the hype.

    Again perception plays a role. When the Dickey trade happened there was positive thoughts about the team (falsely)...right now it seems like it would be a desperation move based on public/media perception of where the team is. Opinion of Vlad Jr is less of a factor at this point IMO. Opinion of what Cutch will be I can completely buy as a reason not to do the deal.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    You have to realize we have a real life celebrity who posts on our boards Roy firestone.

  20. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanky99 View Post
    Wrong side of 30 isn't just turned 30 this past October. It's nearing 35 or later... mmmmkay! FWIW... I'm on the fence.
    Wrong again mate! Wrong side of 30 means anyone older than 30.

  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Wrong again mate! Wrong side of 30 means anyone older than 30.
    O RLY? Colour me surprised!

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