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Thread: A look at the brief history of Mark Shapiro's Blue Jays, till now and moving forward

  1. #33
    MVP intentional wok's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp12 View Post
    It's actually pretty easy to find someone to play first and have the production smoak has
    ...which still means they'd have had to do free agent shopping and still saved themselves the effort.

  2. #34
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    I actually hope the reason for signing Smoak was because they see something in his numbers or swing or something that indicates they think he can breakout. Even if they are wrong in that case, at least they'd have some logic behind it. Signing him because they wanted a warm body at first is a pretty bad reason for an extension.

    Still, if that's their worst move, and it looks like it is so far, then that's not bad at all.

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    Moderator KingKat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by glory View Post
    I actually hope the reason for signing Smoak was because they see something in his numbers or swing or something that indicates they think he can breakout. Even if they are wrong in that case, at least they'd have some logic behind it. Signing him because they wanted a warm body at first is a pretty bad reason for an extension.

    Still, if that's their worst move, and it looks like it is so far, then that's not bad at all.
    When AA originally acquired Smoak, he said it was a move driven by the analytics department. Smoak makes very hard contact. That's probably the main reason he keeps getting employed despite middling results.
    "We don't have to plan for a rebuild. But all 30 teams have to stay agile, and have to understand that we're dealing with human beings, and these assets to organizations are human and change and evolve. I think what we've tried to do is become more flexible and agile, and to sustain championships is to build from within."

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    Blue Chip Prospect Rusty_Savage's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HERPDERP View Post
    It's funny you put the Justin Smoak signing as a footnote. It's a pretty bad fuck up.
    It's a two year deal worth 8 million. It's not as bad as some Make it out to be

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  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rusty_Savage View Post
    It's a two year deal worth 8 million. It's not as bad as some Make it out to be
    that $8 million could have been used been used partially or wholly towards a free agent signing that could have ended up in TO, like Cecil.
    Fuck Taylor Swift

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKat View Post
    When AA originally acquired Smoak, he said it was a move driven by the analytics department. Smoak makes very hard contact. That's probably the main reason he keeps getting employed despite middling results.
    Yeah even a couple years later when discussing the extension, Atkins way saying that he believes Smoak's upside exceeds his current production, likely for the same reason (hard contact). He's 29 though, at some point soon he either needs to put it together or he winds up a AAAA bat that leaves you wanting more.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pendleton View Post
    Yeah even a couple years later when discussing the extension, Atkins way saying that he believes Smoak's upside exceeds his current production, likely for the same reason (hard contact). He's 29 though, at some point soon he either needs to put it together or he winds up a AAAA bat that leaves you wanting more.
    You mean like Steve Pearce did?

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    Blue Chip Prospect Rusty_Savage's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HERPDERP View Post
    that $8 million could have been used been used partially or wholly towards a free agent signing that could have ended up in TO, like Cecil.
    This FO isn't going to over pay for anyone though. They could have afforded Cecil but weren't going to go above their valuations. Smoak at 8 million over two years wouldn't and shouldn't be a hi derance moving forward

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    Quote Originally Posted by NJH View Post
    the subreddit is always bad

    it's like the bottom 10% of this board got scraped off and found a new home on reddit
    The funny part is through the bad years of 2013-2015 (first half) that place was always a beacon of optimism and anything negative said about the team/management got you downvoted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rusty_Savage View Post
    This FO isn't going to over pay for anyone though. They could have afforded Cecil but weren't going to go above their valuations. Smoak at 8 million over two years wouldn't and shouldn't be a hi derance moving forward
    The problem with that argument is that Smoak himself is an overpayment and I don't mean in terms of his real or imagined production but simply in terms of what he'd fetch in the market. In the current market, he'd struggle to find employment much less get what he got. Of course, the market on his skill set has cratered since he signed but pretty much everyone thought it was an overpayment back then too just not as egregious as it's become. Which isn't to say that back then I thought overpaying for Smoak was a big deal. I really didn't and I'm not going to throw the team under the bus now for misjudging the market. Shit happens. I'm just saying that the argument that they never overpay isn't true. I think it's part of the franchise m.o. to make low stakes over-payments for security blankets. I think the Chavez trade was another example of this. They got fuck nothing out of Chavez except the security of knowing they had a guy who could make starts. After dealing Chavez, they arguably overpaid for Feldman for the exact same reason. These deals end up looking bad because you can't exactly put a WAR value on having guys that in an ideal world you don't use but I understand why they do them and why they make sense in the big picture.
    "We don't have to plan for a rebuild. But all 30 teams have to stay agile, and have to understand that we're dealing with human beings, and these assets to organizations are human and change and evolve. I think what we've tried to do is become more flexible and agile, and to sustain championships is to build from within."

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    This FO will succeed because they value all their assets highly and are insanely risk averse. Soon we'll have Jose Ramirez's and Tyler Naquins (hopefully some Klubers and Carrascos too) popping up out of nowhere just because our FO will never trade a prospect with a pulse.

    The only question is whether it'll take 2 years or 10.

  16. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Santoki View Post
    The funny part is through the bad years of 2013-2015 (first half) that place was always a beacon of optimism and anything negative said about the team/management got you downvoted.
    Just the section of the fanbase that can't help but love AA's fool-hardy GM style.

    Shapiro and Atkins' rational, objective, patient approach must be the biggest wet blanket ever lmao.

  17. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    This FO will succeed because they value all their assets highly and are insanely risk averse. Soon we'll have Jose Ramirez's and Tyler Naquins (hopefully some Klubers and Carrascos too) popping up out of nowhere just because our FO will never trade a prospect with a pulse.

    The only question is whether it'll take 2 years or 10.
    The one potential fault with Shatkins FO is that they might be TOO risk averse. Humans are risk-averse by nature and it's essentially a cognitive flaw in many contexts.

    Although Cleveland's operation in 2016, particularly the deadline period, shows that in the right situation short term risks will be made.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NJH View Post
    The one potential fault with Shatkins FO is that they might be TOO risk averse. Humans are risk-averse by nature and it's essentially a cognitive flaw in many contexts.

    Although Cleveland's operation in 2016, particularly the deadline period, shows that in the right situation short term risks will be made.
    I don't care what anyone says, the Swisher and Bourn signings have to be at least 1% traumatizing for them. Those 2 players were slam dunk signings. Completely logical and in the context of those CLE teams, they made a lot of sense. And both players absolutely turned to shit as soon as they signed those contracts.

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  21. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    I don't care what anyone says, the Swisher and Bourn signings have to be at least 1% traumatizing for them. Those 2 players were slam dunk signings. Completely logical and in the context of those CLE teams, they made a lot of sense. And both players absolutely turned to shit as soon as they signed those contracts.
    Have to speculate whether they were both on PED's and stopped taking that risk as soon as the cashed in.

  22. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    I don't care what anyone says, the Swisher and Bourn signings have to be at least 1% traumatizing for them. Those 2 players were slam dunk signings. Completely logical and in the context of those CLE teams, they made a lot of sense. And both players absolutely turned to shit as soon as they signed those contracts.
    Yeah. I actually feel bad for Shapiro that those signings never worked out. I think that was the first time Cleveland actually went out and spent money on some solid players, and it turned out worse than anybody could have imagined.

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