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View Poll Results: What should the Jays do?

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  • Teardown

    36 59.02%
  • Stay the course

    25 40.98%
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Thread: April Postmortem: The Cases For and Against a Teardown

  1. #33
    Hall of Famer NJH's Avatar
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    Re-tool for 2018 with Donaldson. Plan on rebuilding or whatever after that.
    Last edited by NJH; 04-30-2017 at 10:35 PM.

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  3. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanky99 View Post
    No comment, yet. That was a fantastic post GD, thanks, mate. Right now, it's stay the course. Come Mid-June, it's much different. Or predominantly different, now.
    If you're management though, if the overpayment can come now you have to go for it. If Tulo was healthy and someone needed a solid SS to replace an injured player or push them over the top, you've gotta listen. Same on everyone. There is a less than 5% chance this team goes to the post season.

  4. #35
    DONOR Spanky99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FrozenRopes View Post
    If you're management though, if the overpayment can come now you have to go for it. If Tulo was healthy and someone needed a solid SS to replace an injured player or push them over the top, you've gotta listen. Same on everyone. There is a less than 5% chance this team goes to the post season.
    Like I said... a couple months from now. GM's always talk, 24/7 and year round.

  5. #36
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    How do you retool if the 2017 team isn't good? Hope for better health from 30-35 year old's, sign two starting pitchers as good as or better than Estrada and Liriano, and still have no help from the minors unless Alford is for real and can cover one of the OF spots next year?

    A retool would make sense if everyone was injured/underachieving and would regress for the better next year, but it doesn't look like that at all.

  6. #37
    Hall of Famer NJH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by glory View Post
    A retool would make sense if everyone was injured/underachieving
    That's basically what is happening right now. Toronto has a bunch of players who are hurt and/or off to awful starts, that should reasonably be expected to play better baseball the rest of this year and next.

    Steamer's rest of season projection for Toronto has them as winning the 7th most games in MLB between now and the end of 2017. The team is not bad.

    Just re-sign Estrada, replace a few guys in free agency or even by trade at the 2017 deadline, supplement the MLB depth with Tellez, McGuire, Alford, Greene, DSJ, Lourdes, etc. and try again next year.

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  8. #38
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    Close vote so far. Given that BTS voted for teardown, I'd say stay the course is the way to go.
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

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  10. #39
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    short-term in-between re-tool like the red sox did a few times...
    We're not bad enough to Astros/Braves it for a 4-5 years tank

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  12. #40
    Big Leaguer Bobthe4th's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJH View Post
    That's basically what is happening right now. Toronto has a bunch of players who are hurt and/or off to awful starts, that should reasonably be expected to play better baseball the rest of this year and next.

    Steamer's rest of season projection for Toronto has them as winning the 7th most games in MLB between now and the end of 2017. The team is not bad.

    Just re-sign Estrada, replace a few guys in free agency or even by trade at the 2017 deadline, supplement the MLB depth with Tellez, McGuire, Alford, Greene, DSJ, Lourdes, etc. and try again next year.
    The things that have turned this season so far from a slow start to a historically bad one are the Donaldson injury, and the awful start from Travis & Pearce.

    JD is the team MVP. Pearce was meant to quickly win an everyday role and result in one of Smoak or Carrera getting released. Travis was mean to hit for average and therefore give rbi opportunities for the sluggers.

    All the other factors (Injuries, Bautista, slow first few weeks from Martin, Osuna & Grilli issues, Salty) would likely still have resulted in a slow start but we'd probably be around .500 if JD, Travis and Pearce (1/3 of the lineup) had provided what was expected.

  13. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    The things that have turned this season so far from a slow start to a historically bad one are the Donaldson injury, and the awful start from Travis & Pearce.

    JD is the team MVP. Pearce was meant to quickly win an everyday role and result in one of Smoak or Carrera getting released. Travis was mean to hit for average and therefore give rbi opportunities for the sluggers.

    All the other factors (Injuries, Bautista, slow first few weeks from Martin, Osuna & Grilli issues, Salty) would likely still have resulted in a slow start but we'd probably be around .500 if JD, Travis and Pearce (1/3 of the lineup) had provided what was expected.
    In a weird way that's kind of encouraging. I don't believe that we're as bad as our record and therefore a complete rebuild isn't inevitable.

  14. #42
    DONOR - Moderator o2cui2i's Avatar
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    I'd be fine with the re-tool option that isn't on the list. I don't think they should blow it up. they have some really good pieces they can easily build around.

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  16. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by L54 View Post
    Hockey and basketball aren't played in the summer, so even if the Jays fade into the background for a few years it wouldn't be that hard to regain momentum if they win. It really is that simple. If they win.
    I agree that momentum doesn't matter. The big thing is that Rogers will want to keep the ratings healthy. If you give Rogers the choice between a full tear down and a World Series in five years and five years of competitive teams that fall just short but keeps the ratings high into September, they will choose the later every time. Sure that's a false dichotomy but it does show that Rogers's priorities are different than those of another owner. They care about the TV ratings in a way that other owners don't. Another team might look at when the TV rights are up and only really care about where the team is in the ratings when it comes time to negotiate as opposed to year to year. Rogers will fund a payroll just to keep the team robust enough for the tv ratings and because of that they won't see the same economy in a rebuild that other teams would. The tradeoff of a rebuild is that the product may be bad but you save money on payroll which should balance out any loss of revenue in attendance but for Rogers a rebuild is a double whammy. They not only lose at the gate but they also see their media content lose value. I just don't see them having any appetite for it and that's not necessarily a bad thing. One can look at the Cubs' perfect storm of a rebuild and be envious or that but their rebuild made it look a lot easier than it actually is. A rebuild wouldn't necessarily go that smoothly and year to year retooling can work quite well.
    Last edited by KingKat; 05-01-2017 at 10:21 AM.
    "if this board died it would objectively be a good thing - NJH"

  17. #44
    Blue Chip Prospect SAAviour's Avatar
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    I feel neither is the correct answer, but staying the course is slightly worse so tear this mother down.

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  19. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKat View Post
    I agree that momentum doesn't matter. The big thing is that Rogers will want to keep the ratings healthy. If you give Rogers the choice between a full tear down and a World Series in five years and five years of competitive teams that fall just short but keeps the ratings high into September, they will choose the later every time. Sure that's a false dichotomy but it does show that Rogers's priorities are different than those of another owner. They care about the TV ratings in a way that other owners don't. Another team might look at when the TV rights are up and only really care about where the team is in the ratings when it comes time to negotiate as opposed to year to year. Rogers will fund a payroll just to keep the team robust enough for the tv ratings and because of that they won't see the same economy in a rebuild that other teams would. The tradeoff of a rebuild is that the product may be bad but you save money on payroll which should balance out any loss of revenue in attendance but for Rogers a rebuild is a double whammy. They not only lose at the gate but they also see their media content lose value. I just don't see them having any appetite for it and that's not necessarily a bad thing. One can look at the Cubs' perfect storm of a rebuild and be envious or that but their rebuild made it look a lot easier than it actually is. A rebuild wouldn't necessarily go that smoothly and year to year retooling can work quite well.
    The problem is you aren't getting a competitive team for 5 years. If Donaldson leaves you are a high 70s low 80 win team which is what they had for 20 years. No one wants to be stuck in the middle.

    Really depends on what Rogers is willing to spend. They can be a competitive team but they're going to need to spend like $180 Million.

  20. #46
    All Star Dick_Pole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GD View Post
    Close vote so far. Given that BTS voted for teardown, I'd say stay the course is the way to go.
    I am also happy that I have voted opposite Jim.

    This question is much better asked two months from now. There is little to no benefit in trading Donaldson, Happ et al. now versus July. If the Jays still suck or turn it around by then the FO will have much more information to choose their direction. Same thing with every other team. A contender that is one step away that needs an extra starter or a big bat that can play a premium defensive position will pay just as much in July as now. Particularly if there's a bidding war for such players.

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  22. #47
    All Star Dick_Pole's Avatar
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    Even though I side with stay the course, some of the reasons in that article were pretty lame. Momentum is overrated and the fact that there are two winter time teams which at most will play into June in a city with a very diverse range of opinions and tastes in its population means nothing. Toronto is big enough to handle three successful sports franchises of the four major leagues.

  23. #48
    Hall of Famer burlingtonbandit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dick_Pole View Post
    Even though I side with stay the course, some of the reasons in that article were pretty lame. Momentum is overrated and the fact that there are two winter time teams which at most will play into June in a city with a very diverse range of opinions and tastes in its population means nothing. Toronto is big enough to handle three successful sports franchises of the four major leagues.
    Exactly it really only effects a couple of months. I mean if the Leafs/Raptors made the finals then no one would care about the Jays until June but there's nothing else in the summer time. Even if the Jays are bad lots of people will still go to games in July/August.

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