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View Poll Results: What should the Jays do?

Voters
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  • Teardown

    36 59.02%
  • Stay the course

    25 40.98%
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Results 81 to 96 of 104

Thread: April Postmortem: The Cases For and Against a Teardown

  1. #81
    All Star Terminator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJH View Post
    Remember there is a new CBA now:
    How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a shit? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?

  2. #82
    Big Leaguer Bobthe4th's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a shit? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?
    Arguably the bigger impact is that a player who's already had a QO in his career cannot be offered another one (irrespective of whether they accepted it or not).

    Estrada was offered one in 2015 so can't be offered another.

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  4. #83
    Big Leaguer Bobthe4th's Avatar
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    And apparently Liriano had a QO when he was with the Pirates - so he's out too.

  5. #84
    Top 100 Prospect wk680's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirBJay View Post
    I really doubt that 40 innings of Estrada's career is going to add much sway in terms of value for teams that are looking for a rental pitcher.
    Postseason pitching results:
    Kershaw: 89.0 ip, 1.157 WHIP, 4.55 ERA
    Price: 66.2 ip, 1.230 WHIP, 5.54 ERA
    Estrada: 47.2 ip, 0.839 WHIP, 2.64 ERA

    In that context, along with solid regular season results from 2015 to date, Estrada probably looks pretty good to a contender looking for another starter at the trade deadline.

  6. #85
    Hall of Famer NJH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a shit? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?
    It will affect the market a lot. I don't think the draft pick attachment will significantly depress any free agent's value from now on.

    A first rounder is something like 8+, but perhaps a lot more for some teams and certainly for mid-round picks rather than picks at the end of the round.

    But the average WAR by draft pick is a hockey stick graph, right. So the drop off is sharp. A second rounder might be like, 2.5-4 million. A third might be 2.5 and under, something like that. By the fifth round the dollar value is negligible.
    And besides the money there is a different psychological impact. A team can give up their 3rd rounder and still have 2+ picks before that. It's way different than the idea of giving up your top draft pick, right?

  7. #86
    All Star Terminator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJH View Post
    It will affect the market a lot. I don't think the draft pick attachment will significantly depress any free agent's value from now on.

    A first rounder is something like 8+, but perhaps a lot more for some teams and certainly for mid-round picks rather than picks at the end of the round.

    But the average WAR by draft pick is a hockey stick graph, right. So the drop off is sharp. A second rounder might be like, 2.5-4 million. A third might be 2.5 and under, something like that.

    And besides the money there is a different psychological impact. A team can give up their 3rd rounder and still have 2+ picks before that. It's way different than the idea of giving up your top draft pick, right?
    Yeah I think some teams will probably just ignore it altogether. Others will factor it in but it's a lot different than giving up a first. Much better for the players. I'm glad it's been revamped like this.

  8. #87
    Hall of Famer burlingtonbandit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    Arguably the bigger impact is that a player who's already had a QO in his career cannot be offered another one (irrespective of whether they accepted it or not).

    Estrada was offered one in 2015 so can't be offered another.
    Was he officially offered one or was the thought he was going to be offered one so that is why he signed the deal? I can't remember the specifics of it.

  9. #88
    Big Leaguer Bobthe4th's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by burlingtonbandit View Post
    Was he officially offered one or was the thought he was going to be offered one so that is why he signed the deal? I can't remember the specifics of it.
    Yeah, a QO was made, he had a week to decide and in that time agreed his current contract.

  10. #89
    ECJF Level GD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a shit? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?
    Here's the draft value article:

    http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/1...f-draft-picks/

    A 2nd is worth a little over half a mil, a 3rd is worth a few mil, a 5th is negligible from a mil. So teams will probably be paying anywhere between $3m to $7m, as opposed to the $10-20m they've been paying recently. Should see QOs declined way more and those guys get signed, I'd think.
    Quote Originally Posted by o2cui2i View Post
    climate change (lol)

  11. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by GD View Post
    Here's the draft value article:

    http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/1...f-draft-picks/

    A 2nd is worth a little over half a mil, a 3rd is worth a few mil, a 5th is negligible from a mil. So teams will probably be paying anywhere between $3m to $7m, as opposed to the $10-20m they've been paying recently. Should see QOs declined way more and those guys get signed, I'd think.
    Thanks for the article but what?

  12. #91
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    What teams would be interested in Donaldson anyways? I imagine any contender at the deadline that needs a 3B

  13. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by george09 View Post
    What teams would be interested in Donaldson anyways? I imagine any contender at the deadline that needs a 3B
    Any contender that didn't have a 5 WAR player at 3B would at least have to kick the tires on him.

  14. #93
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    Yankees could use a 3B

  15. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by george09 View Post
    What teams would be interested in Donaldson anyways? I imagine any contender at the deadline that needs a 3B
    pretty much all of them.... they don't even have to need a 3B, they can swap 3B and the other team can add prospects to pay for the upgrade

  16. #95
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    I wouldn't mind trading Estrada and Liriano at the deadline, and then signing them back in the off-season. Someone's going to have to eat up innings. Maybe the Jays get lucky and get a few young position players for those two and then bring them back at $15-16mm aav. I mean they have shit in the minors as far as pitching depth, and that probably wouldn't change in 2018 (probably 2019 is when some pitching might surface in the upper minors). If you want to retool on the fly, that's the way to do it. I don't think Liriano has any attachment to Toronto, but Estrada might. Trade him in July and make it known that you want him back in the winter. See if they can work out another deal.

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  18. #96
    MVP LetTheBallFly's Avatar
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    Wonder what the Cubs could give us for a pitcher...or 2 come July
    See the ball and let it fly, Watch the ball soaring through the sky, Higher like a comet in the night air, Defying gravity is rare, Let the ball fly, Its homerun time!!!!!


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