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Thread: Preparing for 2018

  1. #33
    MVP jaysblue's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brownie19 View Post


    I'm going to disengage now thanks.
    $18M QO for a 32-year-old MI who just had a breakout season?

    https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/7/...nsion-unlikely

    Even Ken Rosenthal thinks the Reds don't offer him a QO this offseason.

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    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Only thing I know for certain is there will not be a tear down. Much like the Rays all these years the team is going to project to be competitive. Small signings (in length not AAV) and minor trades mostly.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    You have to realize we have a real life celebrity who posts on our boards Roy firestone.

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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-Snarls View Post
    What team with money would be willing to trade for him and maybe pre-sign an extension? We won't get as much if he's just being obtained for 1 year at 22M+ which he'll probably get in arb-3.
    I'd put the odds of Donaldson agreeing to something like that somewhere close to 0%. I also don't see why the other team would pay extra for this window. Wouldn't they have the entire year to work something out with him?
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dinger View Post
    All black people have an obligation to their own people to not further their own systematic oppression. Go fuck yourself.

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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    My #1 take here is that they need to find a permanent replacement for Travis. His injury problems are chronic and he'll play maybe 40 games before hurting himself and we are treated to the Goins and Barney show.

    Trade JD. Dunno what you'd get but I'm sure someone will pay a shitload.

    Find a way to get Reagins a GM job and make him take Tulo. Man, I was so excited when he came here but he's a meagre shadow of what he once was.

    I think we need to start gearing up for when Bo and Vlad are here. The Yankees are a good example, I think, of the direction we should go.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dinger View Post
    All black people have an obligation to their own people to not further their own systematic oppression. Go fuck yourself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    My #1 take here is that they need to find a permanent replacement for Travis. His injury problems are chronic and he'll play maybe 40 games before hurting himself and we are treated to the Goins and Barney show.
    Right on cue...


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    My #1 take here is that they need to find a permanent replacement for Travis. His injury problems are chronic and he'll play maybe 40 games before hurting himself and we are treated to the Goins and Barney show.

    Trade JD. Dunno what you'd get but I'm sure someone will pay a shitload.

    Find a way to get Reagins a GM job and make him take Tulo. Man, I was so excited when he came here but he's a meagre shadow of what he once was.

    I think we need to start gearing up for when Bo and Vlad are here. The Yankees are a good example, I think, of the direction we should go.
    I think Zobrist would make some sense. He's still a neutral to plus defender, and can play both 2nd and OF (other positions in a pinch). The Cubs really don't need him anymore, and would probably be just as happy to drop the salary. After his injury riddled summer which destroyed his numbers, he's starting to hit again.

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    I'd try to extend JD. If he says no I go to the trade deadline with him. If we are out of it then trade him at the deadline. If we are in it we can keep him and try to resign him in the offseason. I think with better luck we could easily compete in 2018.

    Now if Shatkins trades him this offseason and we get a solid haul I won't be upset. It's a tough decision.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    I'd try to extend JD. If he says no I go to the trade deadline with him. If we are out of it then trade him at the deadline. If we are in it we can keep him and try to resign him in the offseason. I think with better luck we could easily compete in 2018.

    Now if Shatkins trades him this offseason and we get a solid haul I won't be upset. It's a tough decision.
    Yeah, no matter what they try to do it's tough - how much is offered in an extension before it becomes a restriction on what we can do with the remaining budget?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pendleton View Post
    I'm pretty sure he wasn't suggesting those teams as landing spots for Donaldson....
    That makes a lot more sense! Thought he was replying to the comment directly above asking for who'd have the assets to acquire JD.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    Yeah, no matter what they try to do it's tough - how much is offered in an extension before it becomes a restriction on what we can do with the remaining budget?
    If they could get away with a 5 or 6 year commitment which takes him through his age 36 or 37 season it could provide a lot of surplus value. If he can pick up 7 WAR a year in the first couple and then put up 2-3 on the backend it wouldn't be so bad for us. The problem is if you go 7 years or more, that's when it'd be tough for the team to swallow.

  14. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    If they could get away with a 5 or 6 year commitment which takes him through his age 36 or 37 season it could provide a lot of surplus value. If he can pick up 7 WAR a year in the first couple and then put up 2-3 on the backend it wouldn't be so bad for us. The problem is if you go 7 years or more, that's when it'd be tough for the team to swallow.
    Anything more than 5 years (including next year) plus an option year would be too much IMO - but that might not get it done.

    As we say - it's going to be very difficult to do the "right" thing, when no one really knows what the right thing is!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    Anything more than 5 years (including next year) plus an option year would be too much IMO - but that might not get it done.

    As we say - it's going to be very difficult to do the "right" thing, when no one really knows what the right thing is!
    I'd talk to ownership and get a glimpse of what they are thinking about payroll. If they are willing to field a Top 10-12 payroll or so or better I would replace next year with a 6 year, 180 million dollar deal if he wanted. That's probably as high as I would go. Not sure that would get it done though I think it would be pretty competitive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    I'd talk to ownership and get a glimpse of what they are thinking about payroll. If they are willing to field a Top 10-12 payroll or so or better I would replace next year with a 6 year, 180 million dollar deal if he wanted. That's probably as high as I would go. Not sure that would get it done though I think it would be pretty competitive.
    Wouldn't a top 10-12 payroll be a step back though? We were fifth this year. I'd sign Donaldson if ownership committed an extra 10-15mill in payroll. That would put the Jays around 175-180million dollar payroll next year. You could keep Donaldson and still have enough flexibility to get a starter and maybe a veteran outfielder with some pop (maybe even Martinez if we can dump most of Morales' contract on someone)

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  18. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    I'd talk to ownership and get a glimpse of what they are thinking about payroll. If they are willing to field a Top 10-12 payroll or so or better I would replace next year with a 6 year, 180 million dollar deal if he wanted. That's probably as high as I would go. Not sure that would get it done though I think it would be pretty competitive.
    If Donaldson turned down 6/180M guaranteed, it is either because he is a fool or really doesn't want to play in TO long term. I don't see him getting more than a 5/150M deal if he goes to free agency entering his age 33 season in 2019.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cbert View Post
    Wouldn't a top 10-12 payroll be a step back though? We were fifth this year. I'd sign Donaldson if ownership committed an extra 10-15mill in payroll. That would put the Jays around 175-180million dollar payroll next year. You could keep Donaldson and still have enough flexibility to get a starter and maybe a veteran outfielder with some pop (maybe even Martinez if we can dump most of Morales' contract on someone)
    I think the Jays 2017 opening day payroll was only 5th in MLB if you include the entirety of Upton's salary. But with the Jays only on the hook for $1M of that, it drops their effective payroll down to about 10th in MLB. I know this past off-season there were quite a lot of tickets purchased, so attendance remains good despite the bad results; maybe partly since tickets were already purchased. It will be interesting to see how pre-sales of tickets go this coming offseason. I guess making a splash in the free agent market or a big trade would help energize it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wk680 View Post
    If Donaldson turned down 6/180M guaranteed, it is either because he is a fool or really doesn't want to play in TO long term. I don't see him getting more than a 5/150M deal if he goes to free agency entering his age 33 season in 2019.



    I think the Jays 2017 opening day payroll was only 5th in MLB if you include the entirety of Upton's salary. But with the Jays only on the hook for $1M of that, it drops their effective payroll down to about 10th in MLB. I know this past off-season there were quite a lot of tickets purchased, so attendance remains good despite the bad results; maybe partly since tickets were already purchased. It will be interesting to see how pre-sales of tickets go this coming offseason. I guess making a splash in the free agent market or a big trade would help energize it.
    If he were to do 5 for 150 after next season he could easily provide surplus value. I think the market is roughly 9 mil per WAR right now? I could see something like this as a realistic aging curve for him.

    Age 33, 2019: 5.5 WAR
    Age 34, 2020: 5.0
    Age 35, 2021: 4.5
    Age 36, 2022: 4.0
    Age 37, 2023: 3.5

  20. #48
    Top 100 Prospect wk680's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    If he were to do 5 for 150 after next season he could easily provide surplus value. I think the market is roughly 9 mil per WAR right now? I could see something like this as a realistic aging curve for him.

    Age 33, 2019: 5.5 WAR
    Age 34, 2020: 5.0
    Age 35, 2021: 4.5
    Age 36, 2022: 4.0
    Age 37, 2023: 3.5
    So that is a total of 22.5 WAR or $202M in 'value' at $9M per WAR. But I think your numbers are pretty optimistic. Maybe if you knock those numbers down by 1 per season, you still get 17.5 WAR and is worth the 5/150. So he may well get it if he has a good 2018, but I don't see him getting more. There is too much downside risk and you see so many teams (Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, Yankees) building on a core of young position players that is going to limit the free agent market for these 30+ year olds as we already saw this past offseason.

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