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Thread: Jays in on Ozuna. Boring off-season

  1. #129
    DONOR jays4life19's Avatar
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    BP think's it was a fair trade. hmmm.

    ____

    St. Louis Cardinals acquired OF-R Marcell Ozuna from Miami Marlins in exchange for RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF-L Magneuris Sierra, RHP Zac Gallen, and LHP Daniel Castano. [12/13]

    After missing out on Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals went out and got the next-best thing: another power-hitting Marlins corner outfielder who plays surprisingly solid defense and is young enough to be considered a building block. Only this time, the player heading to St. Louis is Ozuna, who finally broke out as a star during his age-26 season. The old-school triple-crown numbers (.312 batting average, 37 homers, 124 RBIs) are the calling cards, but there’s enough underlying positives in his profile to make the Cards think he can be a hyper-productive regular for the next couple seasons before he heads into free agency.

    While the Cardinals had outfield depth to spare (Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Magneuris Sierra) and more on the way (Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader), Ozuna probably has both a higher upside and a higher floor than any other outfielder in the organization, including fellow 2017 breakout star Tommy Pham. Ozuna has been a power threat since his first full season in 2014, but of late he’s transformed from threat to promise: pitchers started to react to his power surge by giving him less in the zone to work with, and he still managed to make contact on those balls out of the zone and muscle enough of them over the fence or into the gaps for hits. His average exit velocity was 13th in baseball and his average home run distance was 20th.

    Best of all, Ozuna’s batted ball data—such as pull, line-drive, and fly-ball rate—didn’t shift dramatically from previous seasons, meaning there’s some indication that his profile is stable and that his offensive production should be steady. On the other hand, if the batted ball data is roughly the same and his approach hasn’t shifted too much, couldn’t that mean that 2017 was a bit of a fluke? After all, Ozuna’s BABIP was sky high, and his HR/FB rate was abnormal at 23.4 percent. Perhaps we should bake in some regression in terms of batting average and maybe a little power? I’d be more comfortable betting on a decrease in hits, but guys who make loud, hard contact regularly (like Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano) tend to run high on those numbers regularly, and Ozuna seems to fit that mold. Ozuna is a real-deal power threat, even before the changed baseball, uh, changed baseball.

    There are other skills to like in his profile beyond just the bat. Defensive metrics tend to be very complimentary to Ozuna, so long as he’s not playing center field. For the Cardinals he’ll likely play left field, with Pham in center and Dexter Fowler in right. Ozuna’s baserunning didn’t earn him good marks this season, but up until now he’s been more competent than your average lead-footed slugger on the bases. Then there’s the issue of his age and paycheck—one is headed for it’s prime and the other is less than what it will be during his prime. At an estimated $10 or $11 million in arbitration this season, the amount the Cardinals will be paying Ozuna will be a pittance even if he regresses to his 2014 and 2016 levels of performance. If he repeats 2017, he’ll be one of the game’s great bargains.

    St. Louis is one Chris Taylor away from adding almost every emergent All-Star-caliber outfielder from the 2017 National League. Between Pham and Ozuna, the Cardinals now have two sides of the same coin: power-hitting pseudo-center fielders with youth and talent. Paired with Fowler, it’s likely the best outfield east of Anaheim. Is it enough–along with moves like the signings of Luke Gregerson and Miles Mikolas–to surpass the Brewers and the Cubs in a race to the top of the NL Central? Maybe! One would have to imagine there’s another move or two in the offing, like the much-rumored deal of Piscotty to Oakland, that might shore up first base or the uninspiring bench.

    But this is a team that’s absolutely going hard at 2018, consolidating assets and trying to field a roster that could compete for the Wild Card and thrive if they manage to swing a playoff berth. There’s enough talent on the farm to bring back another impact piece for the infield or the rotation, not to mention a generous helping of “Devil Magic” to upgrade somewhere we least expect it. Ozuna’s been overlooked for a while playing in the shadow of Stanton down south, but now with both sluggers in more favorable markets, I think we’ll get a chance to see that Ozuna can stand on his own.

    ***

    Miami Marlins acquired RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF-L Magneuris Sierra, RHP Zac Gallen, and LHP Daniel Castano from St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for OF-R Marcell Ozuna. [12/13]


    For the first time this offseason, the Marlins have made a deal that legitimately improves their farm system and resembles something like fair value for a player of Ozuna’s caliber. Make no mistake, this is another step along the path to 50-something wins in 2018. At the same time, the team finally has a player who could perhaps be a replacement for one of their departed outfielders. If you want to bag on the Marlins for being cheapskates, for selling off their players at bargain basement prices, or for being disingenuous with the public, please be my guest. But at least this time, the return for one of the game’s best 2017 outfielders isn’t an embarrassment. (The 2018 team will be, though.)

  2. #130
    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    I think Michael Hill is one of the better baseball minds, and considering he's been forced to sell off when Owners want rather than best market...he's done a good job.
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    You have to realize we have a real life celebrity who posts on our boards Roy firestone.

  3. #131
    MVP Terminator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    I think Michael Hill is one of the better baseball minds, and considering he's been forced to sell off when Owners want rather than best market...he's done a good job.
    It's easy to criticize them but the whole league knows they HAVE to sell so they are probably getting tons of lowball offers. Stanton had them by the balls with his NTC too. The only real leverage they have right now is to play one team's offer off another and that doesn't always get you far.

  4. #132
    Blue Chip Prospect MikeM's Avatar
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    Selling in the off-season is the worst because everyone still has options, or think they do. All the UFA hitters are still there. "Why would I trade for Ozuna when I can just sign Cain", says all 30 teams.

    They're better off holding Yelich hostage until the TDL and hoping an OF on a contender gets hurt.

  5. #133
    Super Moderator TheHurl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    You have to realize we have a real life celebrity who posts on our boards Roy firestone.

  6. #134
    All Star jays_fever's Avatar
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    ^Traded in a salary dump, traded for 20% of market value, disgruntled employee, killed himself drunk driving and sucks.

    lol Marlins
    #FireCasey

  7. #135
    DONOR Spanky99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHurl View Post
    Isn't he 28? Oh... the date, lol.

  8. #136
    Super Moderator Chappy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jays_fever View Post
    ^Traded in a salary dump, traded for 20% of market value, disgruntled employee, killed himself drunk driving and sucks.

    lol Marlins

    Kinda shitty when you can laugh at the death of someone.

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