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Thread: Jays in on Cain

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    DONOR jays4life19's Avatar
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    Jays in on Cain

    The club has interest in free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). In theory, Cain could coexist with current center fielder Kevin Pillar, though Cain is also most valuable up the middle. The Jays are interested in committing up to four years, says Heyman, but it seems there are indications Cain will have an opportunity to secure a better deal elsewhere. MLBTR predicted that Cain would land four years in free agency; to this point, we havenít heard much public discussion of his market, but heís rather clearly the top available center fielder.


    Discuss.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jays4life19 View Post
    The club has interest in free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). In theory, Cain could coexist with current center fielder Kevin Pillar, though Cain is also most valuable up the middle. The Jays are interested in committing up to four years, says Heyman, but it seems there are indications Cain will have an opportunity to secure a better deal elsewhere. MLBTR predicted that Cain would land four years in free agency; to this point, we haven’t heard much public discussion of his market, but he’s rather clearly the top available center fielder.


    Discuss.
    I wonder what Pillar would net us in a trade? I don't want to particularly hold onto him once his wheels start going.

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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Cain is a pretty good player and I think I'd be ok with 4 years, but it really depends on the type of AAV he'll be able to secure. Having him and Pillar in the OF can pave the way for a less defensively gifted OF like Pearce or maybe Carlos Gonzalez.
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    All Star z3r0s's Avatar
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    You gotta love Cain. Well rounded player that produces value in all areas. You have to wonder how all those skills will age tho as he will be 35-36 at the end of a 3-4 year deal (and it sounds like he may get more).

    Defense and baserunning don't often age gracefully and his bat is good, not great.

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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by z3r0s View Post
    You gotta love Cain. Well rounded player that produces value in all areas. You have to wonder how all those skills will age tho as he will be 35-36 at the end of a 3-4 year deal (and it sounds like he may get more).

    Defense and baserunning don't often age gracefully and his bat is good, not great.
    Yeah but if he nets like 15 million AAV, you more than likely come out ahead. Cain might be overrated because of all the Royals dickriding, not sure, but I'd be pretty ok with 4/60.
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    All Star z3r0s's Avatar
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    I see the AAV as WAY higher. I'd be jumping if he was $15M

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    Quote Originally Posted by z3r0s View Post
    I see the AAV as WAY higher. I'd be jumping if he was $15M
    Yeah. He's going to get paid. I think the team who eventually gives him the 5th year get's him. I think the contract will be around what Fowler got (5/82.5)

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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by z3r0s View Post
    I see the AAV as WAY higher. I'd be jumping if he was $15M
    I forget how much players make these days, my bad. 4/80 I'd do pretty easily, I think. When he starts to go, just trade him to the Angels.
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    Jays 4 years and Corner OF for Cain = We are out
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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jays4life19 View Post
    Yeah. He's going to get paid. I think the team who eventually gives him the 5th year get's him. I think the contract will be around what Fowler got (5/82.5)
    I'd do that pretty easily for Cain.
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    I posted this in the other thread:

    Cain is a really good player. Might be the top position player on the market but for whatever reason his skillset commands a lot less than the other top free agents. If he'd take something like 4 for 70 I think we could get surplus value out of that. Not sure what we would do with Pillar in that scenario. We could keep him and have fantastic OF defense or we could move him.

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    Orioles Hangout Admin Boxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    I posted this in the other thread:

    Cain is a really good player. Might be the top position player on the market but for whatever reason his skillset commands a lot less than the other top free agents. If he'd take something like 4 for 70 I think we could get surplus value out of that. Not sure what we would do with Pillar in that scenario. We could keep him and have fantastic OF defense or we could move him.
    Yeah, I agree that having Pillar doesn't really block anything. Cain is undervalued because he's a good defender and the Jays signing him doesn't necessitate any type of corresponding move where we trade Pillar unless Kevin causes a stink. I'd assume we'd need to promise Cain that he'd be the CF.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    Yeah, I agree that having Pillar doesn't really block anything. Cain is undervalued because he's a good defender and the Jays signing him doesn't necessitate any type of corresponding move where we trade Pillar unless Kevin causes a stink. I'd assume we'd need to promise Cain that he'd be the CF.
    If we kept Pillar I was assuming Cain would play RF but you might be right in that he could sign only on the condition that he plays CF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jays4life19 View Post
    Yeah. He's going to get paid. I think the team who eventually gives him the 5th year get's him. I think the contract will be around what Fowler got (5/82.5)
    I have to think this is the Fowler situation all over. A good fit for the team, but someone who will get 1 more year and a higher AAV than we think is fair. He's going to get about what Fowler did.


    I'd trade Pillar immediately if we could get some value (regardless of whether we sign Cain).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    but I'd be pretty ok with 4/60.
    I think we'd all be very OK with that, that would be a steal. Cain should comfortably project to put up 8-9 WAR over a 4 year contract, which would put a $60M contract at 50% surplus value. I suspect it will take closer to $20M AAV.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brownie19 View Post
    I have to think this is the Fowler situation all over. A good fit for the team, but someone who will get 1 more year and a higher AAV than we think is fair. He's going to get about what Fowler did.


    I'd trade Pillar immediately if we could get some value (regardless of whether we sign Cain).
    Fowler is very comparable, although he was a year younger. Fowler got $16.5M AAV over 5 years. I'd be comfortable with $17M AAV over 4 years for Cain ($68M), but as you say, someone will probably give him a 5th year.

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