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Thread: Around Baseball 2018

  1. #2913
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5ToolPhenom View Post
    I'm especially surprised by just how shitty the Royals and Texas lineups have been. It's hard to believe KC won a world series a couple of years ago by the look of their roster now. I realize that they have some key injuries, but their depth looks terrible.

    One team that I wouldn't be surprised if they're half decent is the Athletics though. Their pitching leaves a lot to be desired, but I think they have a pretty solid offense this year. I could potentially see them hovering around the 500 mark.
    What happened with the Royals is somewhat common. They get a solid young core - they all peak at the right time - they win - then they get expensive and in the Royals case - they can't afford to keep them and the talent leaves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    Sell tickets?
    If you're not spending big - you don't have to sell a lot of tickets.

  4. #2915
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    Bartolo loses the perfect game in the 8th. Can you imagine if he pulled that off v. the World Series champs at age 67?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brownie19 View Post
    Bartolo loses the perfect game in the 8th. Can you imagine if he pulled that off v. the World Series champs at age 67?
    67? id be impressed enough if he did it at 44.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brownie19 View Post
    Bartolo loses the perfect game in the 8th. Can you imagine if he pulled that off v. the World Series champs at age 67?
    These Dominicans just getting worse and worse with their birth certificate fakes.
    Quote Originally Posted by LetTheBallFly View Post
    Synder is mediocre at best this year. Let me know when Synder is giving up less runs per game than Sanchez, until then I'll take Sanchez

  7. #2918
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    Man, there's already a game postponed for tomorrow. This year sucks!

  8. #2919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abomination View Post
    Man, there's already a game postponed for tomorrow. This year sucks!
    As a Blue Jays fan it rules! Let the Yankees play 50 games in September. Take one in Cleveland and the other two are rained out when Kluber was supposed to pitch? I think the Jays came out on the winning end on that one too.

  9. #2920
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brownie19 View Post
    Blindly suggesting that others should follow suit is pretty short sighted. The Orioles seem to be following suit...they refuse to rebuild. You follow them and let me know how that works over the next 5-10 years...

    Teams are all using advanced projection systems and now have a much better understanding of where they are on the "win curve". Teams with a 5-10% chance of making the playoffs are no longer going to go sign that aging, declining vet to a long term deal - which hampers their future - for such a low probability of success. They've also learned that adding that vet only increases their chances by a percentage point or two.
    I really wouldn't use the Orioles as an example; they seem pretty inept at everything and if they tanked, they would probably be just as bad at rebuilding as they have been "competing". My point is that totally decimating your MLB roster for a chance at being good in 5 years weakens the league. There are ways to build your minor league system without destroying your MLB team. Look at the Twins; while they had some bad years, and no one thought they should even bother competing last year, they did and ended up in the playoffs. There is a balance to be struck, and I think all of these teams racing to the bottom will do more harm than good for the game overall.

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    The Twins lucked out by the rest of the AL being a pile of shit. WC2 usually needs like 87 wins to lock up a spot. I'm not sure they're a good example of not-tanking. Pretty sure they sold off the back end of their pen and rotation in anticipation of not competing too.

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  13. #2922
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hipfan View Post
    I really wouldn't use the Orioles as an example; they seem pretty inept at everything and if they tanked, they would probably be just as bad at rebuilding as they have been "competing". My point is that totally decimating your MLB roster for a chance at being good in 5 years weakens the league. There are ways to build your minor league system without destroying your MLB team. Look at the Twins; while they had some bad years, and no one thought they should even bother competing last year, they did and ended up in the playoffs. There is a balance to be struck, and I think all of these teams racing to the bottom will do more harm than good for the game overall.
    OK. Look at Seattle then.

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    Projecting paydays for next year's top free agents

    7:15 AM CT
    Dan Szymborski
    Special to ESPN.com

    While the 2017-18 offseason may long be notorious as one of the slowest baseball winters ever -- at least when it came to free agents -- the next one ought to be a good deal more exciting. Legitimate superstars will hit free agency, many from teams in contention right now, which means that even though it's only the middle of April, these players affect how teams are and will be run for the rest of the season.

    Because projections are fun, I instructed the ZiPS projection system to project the contract figures for the best free agents set to hit the market (and the ones that may). Few teams have unlimited payrolls, even with reset luxury tax penalties, so there's a real difference between a $15 million and a $25 million player.

    This winter provided one of the challenges when gauging the market interest going forward: How much are teams willing to pay for a win? This is a figure that has gone up steadily in baseball history, but for the first time in the 15 years of projections I've run, that number went down this offseason.

    For the 2017 season, ZiPS estimated that teams valued free agents as if they were worth $7.1 million above replacement level (the number that makes the projected contracts the most accurate). Going into the offseason, ZiPS projected that number to grow, as it usually does, by 5 percent to $7.6 million. It didn't.

    In fact, with the offseason behind us, ZiPS gets an implied value of $6.8 million per win above replacement, with values all over the place (for the teams at least, the players not so much). Note that I'm not counting Shohei Ohtani, who was essentially a restricted free agent. So how 2019 plays out is anyone's guess, but I'm still going to project 5 percent growth, but from 2017-2018's lower figure, getting us to $7.2 million.

    With that in mind, what does that mean for projecting the deals for next winter's top free agents?

    Manny Machado: Eight years, $300 million priced as a shortstop, or $264 million over eight years as a third baseman. Before you accuse me or my projections for wearing orange- and black-colored glasses, remember that I've said about two nice things about the Orioles in the past year and a half. Manny has never had that 2015 Bryce Harper season, but since his leg injuries early in his career he has been durable and steadily performed at the superstar level, even his "disappointing year" of 2017 landing him in the above-average category. What ought to give Machado an edge is the positional flexibility. While it's a tough market for third basemen, Machado's ability to play shortstop gives him a signficant edge, potentially putting more employers into the bidding.

    With more teams with the potential to bid and the Orioles facing an uphill climb to reach the playoffs, there's a non-zero chance that Machado never actually hits free agency, possibly signing with a team that trades for him midseason. The Orioles won't admit it, but it's extremely unlikely they could put together a package that could both keep Manny and also keep them competitive otherwise.

    Bryce Harper: Eight years, $258 million. This might seem a bit disappointing, if there is such a thing as a disappointing contract for a quarter billion dollars. But there's a reason that Harper may not get that $300 or $400 million contract with record-setting numbers: He's just not Mike Trout.

    That's probably about the mildest insult you can make, but as phenomenally talented a player as Bryce Harper is, how young he hits free agency, and what he has shown he can do at his best, we've still gotten only a single crazy year in which he has been both awesome and healthy: his 10.0 WAR season in 2015, which featured a 1.109 OPS and a 198 OPS+. This is still a monster deal, but I think there's a limit on just how high a team will chase Harper unless 2018 turns out to be his second insanely great season.

    Josh Donaldson: Five years, $135 million. Donaldson right now is as good a player as Machado or Harper are. Or even better. After all, if you ranked all position players in baseball by WAR from 2013-to-2017, Donaldson either ranks an easy second (via FanGraphs) or an easy second (Baseball-Reference), well ahead of Machado and Harper. (You're not really going to make me identify who's in first place, are you? I just mentioned him. Hint: He's an Angel. In center field.)

    But you can't forget the age. Were he at the same age as Harper or Machado, ZiPS would project Donaldson to clear $300 million. But seven years is a long time in baseball and starting the first year of free agency at age 33 is a different story than 26. Stars tend to start off at a high enough level that they remain contributors into their late 30s, but even that's not foolproof. See Albert Pujols and possibly Miguel Cabrera, among many others. (Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder simply weren't as good as Donaldson at any point, so I won't saddle him with their albatross deals.)

    Dallas Keuchel: Six years, $124 million. At this price, it might be hard for the Astros to let Keuchel go. But with Jose Altuve already given an extension for $30 million a year, a deep rotation, and a Carlos Correa megadeal starting to peek around the corner, they might just do that. Keuchel has expressed that he doesn't want to negotiate once the season has started -- and unless you're in Minnesota with its endless winter, the season has started -- and all bets are off when a player actually hits free agency. What's keeping this contract from going north of $150 million is the simple fact that Keuchel's peripherals have jumped nearly a run a game from 2014-2015 to 2016-2017 and he has been less healthy since his 20-8, 2.48 ERA, Cy Young-winning season in 2015. And it's a small sample so far, but he is off to a weak April 2018.

    Craig Kimbrel: Five years, $92 million. Yes, Greg Holland's offseason can best be described as Mr. Holland's Oops, but Kimbrel re-established himself in 2017 as a true elite closer, a clear step above the second tier. He did it in style, too, cutting his walk rate from 5.1 walks per nine to 1.8, something I literally can't remember anyone doing who didn't have a major injury in the first year. Kenley Jansen got five years, $80 million, and hit the market at a similarly established quality, so this doesn't feel like a stretch. Though it would be fun to see Kimbrel be that first $100 million closer rather than some dude the Rockies overpay in 2021.

    Andrew Miller: Five years, $80 million. Miller has only a single 20-save season in his career, but fortunately for him he'll hit free agency in an age where pretty much every team in baseball stopped actually treating save totals as something relevant to their compensation decisions. Successfully escaping that LOOGY (lefty one-out guy) role that so many left-handers find themselves typecast into -- Miller has unusually small platoon splits, at only 23 points of OPS for his career -- Miller will humiliate batters in whatever inning you use him in. Just, at least by the projections, a dash less humiliation than Craig Kimbrel is projected to dish out.

    Brian Dozier: Five years, $77 million. If only the sabermetricians could figure out how to include his arbitrary application of baseball's unwritten rules into wins above replacement, Dozier could clean up this winter. Though that's unlikely to happen, ZiPS projects Dozier to retain his power and his defense, hitting 25-30 homers a year in his next deal while providing defense that still stays roughly around league-average. The batting average projects to slip as he accelerates into his 30s and while being Extra Good Neil Walker is a valuable thing to be, Dozier doesn't get to the $100 million mark.

    Honorable mention
    Clayton Kershaw: Seven years, $252 million. No, Kershaw isn't a free agent, but he could be, the prospect of which makes next winter even more fascinating. For those unaware, Kershaw's contract, which runs through 2020, allows him to opt out after the 2018 season.

    Remember when there was no way Zack Greinke would opt out of his deal with the Dodgers and even if he did, the Dodgers would totally just pay whatever to keep him? Well, Greinke opted out, the Dodgers wanted to keep him, and they lost a bidding war to Arizona.

    Now, Greinke has been unusually blunt about finances, once reportedly saying that money was the No. 1 thing and that he would happily go to the worst team if they paid the most. So it doesn't mean that Kershaw is automatically going this route, or leaving L.A. But baseball is a business.

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  16. #2924
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    ^ESPN Insider article where the writer estimates what he thinks the top FA will sign for. 5 years, 135 mil for Donaldson.

  17. #2925
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    Keirmeier needs surgery on his thumb

    Out 2-3 months

    Rough season in Tampa...

  18. #2926
    Mod | DONOR BTS's Avatar
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    OK, prospect writers are dumb. Yonny Chirinos had a great season in AAA last season, has been very good in 14 MLB innings this year, and at 24 projects as a league-average starter by Steamer and ZiPS, and the two FG guys have him as the system's 22nd best prospect. That doesn't make any sense.
    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    Unfortunately, they really skimped out on the crickets on mine because they add a pretty flavourful crunch element on top of the coleslaw.

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  20. #2927
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terminator View Post
    ^ESPN Insider article where the writer estimates what he thinks the top FA will sign for. 5 years, 135 mil for Donaldson.
    I really want Kershaw to opt out....

    Kershaw, Harper, Machado and Donaldson in the FA pool together is a baseball fan's wet dream.. not to mention their agents. MVP sports group has both Donaldson and Machado so they are just drooling right now and hoping they both stay healthy and rake this year.
    ****FREE SPANKY****

  21. #2928
    DONOR | Super Moderator G-Snarls's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John_Havok View Post
    I really want Kershaw to opt out....

    Kershaw, Harper, Machado and Donaldson in the FA pool together is a baseball fan's wet dream.. not to mention their agents. MVP sports group has both Donaldson and Machado so they are just drooling right now and hoping they both stay healthy and rake this year.
    That's 4 of the top 10 players in baseball

    Pretty exciting and big $$

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