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Thread: General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

  1. #545
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimcanuck View Post
    30 AAV yes but the 6th year, I can't see Shatkins buying age 39 JD
    They wouldn't have to because age 38 would be the 6th year. I think 5 140 is a fair offer. 30 for 3 years, 2 years at 25 with a team option on the 6th at 20 1 mil buyout.
    Last edited by saskjayfan; 02-07-2018 at 09:19 AM.

  2. #546
    MVP Jimcanuck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by saskjayfan View Post
    They wouldn't have to because age 38 would be the 6th year. I think 5 140 is a fair offer. 30 for 3 years, 25 for 2 years at 25 with a team option on the 6th at 20 1 mil buyout.
    No he is already signed for 2018. 2019 would be the 1st year of an extension.

    edit - nvm, used my fingers to count this time, you are right
    Quote Originally Posted by Boxcar View Post
    I think the Trump presidency has been a smashing success so far, tbh.

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    All Star z3r0s's Avatar
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    man do I love JD, but you can't extend him going into his age 33 season. Guys drop off a cliff around that time.
    You'd have to get him on a steal

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    Quote Originally Posted by z3r0s View Post
    man do I love JD, but you can't extend him going into his age 33 season. Guys drop off a cliff around that time.
    You'd have to get him on a steal
    I know what you're saying, I sure as fuck want to see JD around for a couple more years, especially since his trade value doesn't seem to be high with other teams. Damn though, it's gonna mean taking on an ugly contract I'm sure.
    Quote Originally Posted by gruber92 View Post
    Oh fuck off. Goins is a role player you dumb fuck.

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    All Star z3r0s's Avatar
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    how spoiled have we been to watch on of the top 10 players in the game over the last 3 years (one of the best in the game over the last 5, but 2 in Oakland).

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    Quote Originally Posted by z3r0s View Post
    man do I love JD, but you can't extend him going into his age 33 season. Guys drop off a cliff around that time.
    You'd have to get him on a steal
    On the Macro guys fall off a cliff mid 30s. When you look at the micro a guy like Beltre is projecting for a 4 win season next year for his age 39 season. You throw the blanket aging curve out the door and delve into Donaldson and determine what tools makes him as successful as he is. How will those tools look 3, 4 5+ years out. You're relying on your scouts and taking on big risk. It could be an epic flop or it could provide tremendous value. JD could be a 5 to 6 win player 3 or 4 years into his free agency. At that point his contract will provide huge value. You pair that with Vlad, Bo, Alford, Pearson...etc and that's how you build playoff teams. If you're wrong, you could be in a scenario where 3 to 4 years into a JD free agency contract you are trading off the Vlad's to get prospects for your next run.

    At some point you have to gamble. I'm not sure if a JD gamble would be the right move or not. I do think given his age, you might get discount. Manny likely gets a higher AAV for 10 years than JD gets on a 5 year deal. He certainly gets a higher AAV if JD gets a 6 year deal. I think JD is easily the better player for the first 2 years. He might be the better player for 4 or 5 years of the deal. If that's the case, you've won.

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    Jays expected to finish 4th based on Baseball Prospectus 79-83


    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

    Pretty fair projection, I'd say 79-83 is the range right now unless something changes. Their model appears to be more realistic than Fangraphs, they dont expect much from Travis, Sanchez, They also have pretty strong regression on Smoak, Estrada is expected to be replacement value,

    Infact anyone not named Donaldson, Osuna, or Stroman they are pretty low on.

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    This season is all about putting ourselves in a position where if we excel and are healthy we have a chance. I'd say we are better than the Rays, and probably above .500 by a tiny bit, but well behind the Yanks and Sox. But we do have a chance if everything breaks right or shit really hits the fan in NY or BOS.

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    Aren't the Rays PETCOA projections always higher than what they end up. The Jays pitching is pretty bad I'll admit. That bullpen outside Osuna looks like steaming garbage.

    Good thing is there are still pitchers on the market.

  12. #554
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    Quote Originally Posted by AledmysDiaz View Post
    Jays expected to finish 4th based on Baseball Prospectus 79-83


    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

    Pretty fair projection, I'd say 79-83 is the range right now unless something changes. Their model appears to be more realistic than Fangraphs, they dont expect much from Travis, Sanchez, They also have pretty strong regression on Smoak, Estrada is expected to be replacement value,

    Infact anyone not named Donaldson, Osuna, or Stroman they are pretty low on.
    I agree

    Jays feel like a 3rd/4th place team as it stands. BOS and NYY clearly better on paper but BOS has a way of blowing it at times. BAL likely 5th and TB likely 3 or 4 with TOR in the other spot

    But it's a long season and anything can happen.

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    I believe I read that JD's girlfriend is from Toronto and that he does like Canada - I think his comments may actually be genuine. Not everyone is about the top dollar - tons of free agents have taken less money somewhere even though the Yankees offered top coin. So the player chose less money and less years to be on teams with less chance to win.

    Toronto has a decent shot perhaps 5 years and $140 million (which starts this season over riding his 1 year $23million. So it gives him $7million more this season (with inflation $7million more money today is better than $7 million in 2022).
    2018 $30m
    2019 $30m
    2020 $30m
    2021 $30m
    2022 $20m (2023 and 2024 vest together)
    2023 $20m vesting option
    2024 $20m vesting option

    Add a bunch of incentives and who knows. I mean he will probably be very good at 3b for at least the next three years. Then move him to first and then dh.

  14. #556
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    Quote Originally Posted by Key22 View Post
    I believe I read that JD's girlfriend is from Toronto and that he does like Canada - I think his comments may actually be genuine. Not everyone is about the top dollar - tons of free agents have taken less money somewhere even though the Yankees offered top coin. So the player chose less money and less years to be on teams with less chance to win.

    Toronto has a decent shot perhaps 5 years and $140 million (which starts this season over riding his 1 year $23million. So it gives him $7million more this season (with inflation $7million more money today is better than $7 million in 2022).
    2018 $30m
    2019 $30m
    2020 $30m
    2021 $30m
    2022 $20m (2023 and 2024 vest together)
    2023 $20m vesting option
    2024 $20m vesting option

    Add a bunch of incentives and who knows. I mean he will probably be very good at 3b for at least the next three years. Then move him to first and then dh.
    In that scenario you can't count the $23m he's already getting in 2018, so it's effectively $117m for 4 years, plus 2 vesting years. Zero chance his agent even responds to an offer that low, even if he was desperate to stay with the Jays.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobthe4th View Post
    In that scenario you can't count the $23m he's already getting in 2018, so it's effectively $117m for 4 years, plus 2 vesting years. Zero chance his agent even responds to an offer that low, even if he was desperate to stay with the Jays.
    +1. That's an incredibly bad offer for JD - even in this market. Like 1% of vesting options are picked up, so it's safe to ignore those.

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    My guess is he will try for something like 5/175, not counting 2018. If the Jays didn't have Martin and Tulo, then I might be ok with one really big and potentially bad (down the road) contract, but with those two plus Morales making $51m in 2018, $52M in 2019, and then Tulo still being around in 2020, it would be a few years before JD became the sole bad contract.

  18. #559
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    Blair/Zwelling/Nicholson-Smith were discussing it on the Bluejays Podcast

    None of them thinks that the offer is beyond 3 years,

    Which is insulting IMO

  19. #560
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    They aren't going to make a statement claiming their offer would make him a Jay for the rest of his career and go out and offer him three years

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