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Thread: General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

  1. #1729
    DONOR BigCecil's Avatar
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    Yanks finally lose 3 in a row and we cant close a sweep vs CINN losing 3-2 and then last nights clusterfuck.

    I am still stunned by Borucki choice with the way Phelps was pitching. But hey...again we didn't hit with RISP. Would have closed that game out early if we did.

    42 gms in the books. Not in "Don't worry, be happy. Its all gonna come around. look at our EVs" mode, especially after missing the playoffs by a gm last year.

  2. #1730
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigCecil View Post
    Yanks finally lose 3 in a row and we cant close a sweep vs CINN losing 3-2 and then last nights clusterfuck.

    I am still stunned by Borucki choice with the way Phelps was pitching. But hey...again we didn't hit with RISP. Would have closed that game out early if we did.

    42 gms in the books. Not in "Don't worry, be happy. Its all gonna come around. look at our EVs" mode, especially after missing the playoffs by a gm last year.
    Choosing Borucki is one factor. The way Vlad and Goldschmidt approached their at bats with the bases loaded is another.

    Goldschmidt and Vlad's current swing mechanics are another factor. Goldschmidt took some pitches and wasn't afraid to be behind in the count. Goldschmidt isn't pounding balls into the dirt right now.

    Of course Vlad is a more talented hitter (probably) and much more inexperienced but still... the job of the coaching staff is to have these players prepared and performing at their best.

    I don't see the decision to put Borucki in to be any more or less important than the overall coaching and preparation of the hitters. The latter factor was just as important as the former in this game.
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.

  3. #1731
    Moderator Laika's Avatar
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    Charlie is annoying but not really THE PROBLEM.

    THE PROBLEM is the offense. Player performance. Maybe you can scapegoat the hitting coach and the manager but really it's on the players.

    Last night with Borucki... well Richard, Merryweather, and Cimber were spent already. Phelps was 17 pitches after throwing 21 pitches the day before, so I can see why they wanted to yank him before possibly ruining him. Bad for RP to throw too many pitches back to back.

    Romano had saves Friday Saturday and just returned from an illness so I can understand preference for him to have two days off. Yimi Garcia blew it the day before and sucks.

    Borucki shouldn't really be on the team IMO. He's a nightmare and shows no signs of figuring it out.
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

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  5. #1732
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    Quote Originally Posted by gruber92 View Post
    Has any team in MLB history who was expected to challenge for a WS title, have a manager as our to lunch as Chuckles is?

    This is all on you Shatkins.
    Has any team had a group of under 30 players implode like this? Bo/Gurriel/Vlad/Teoscar/Kirk/Chapman

    As a group their average age is 26. They should be at peak performance and have been reduced to rubble.

    (I'm not saying they are all terrible, Kirk in particular has good at bats (with lack of power)... just as a group it's a mystifying under-performance).
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.

  6. #1733
    Hall of Famer Stangstag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gruber92 View Post
    Has any team in MLB history who was expected to challenge for a WS title, have a manager as our to lunch as Chuckles is?

    This is all on you Shatkins.
    Dusty maybe? With both the Nats and Astros

  7. #1734
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Charlie is annoying but not really THE PROBLEM.

    THE PROBLEM is the offense. Player performance. Maybe you can scapegoat the hitting coach and the manager but really it's on the players.

    Last night with Borucki... well Richard, Merryweather, and Cimber were spent already. Phelps was 17 pitches after throwing 21 pitches the day before, so I can see why they wanted to yank him before possibly ruining him. Bad for RP to throw too many pitches back to back.

    Romano had saves Friday Saturday and just returned from an illness so I can understand preference for him to have two days off. Yimi Garcia blew it the day before and sucks.

    Borucki shouldn't really be on the team IMO. He's a nightmare and shows no signs of figuring it out.
    Agree with this. Almost at that point with Merryweather too. Both guys throw the ball and have no idea where its going

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    Quote Originally Posted by Olerud363 View Post
    Has any team had a group of under 30 players implode like this? Bo/Gurriel/Vlad/Teoscar/Kirk/Chapman

    As a group their average age is 26. They should be at peak performance and have been reduced to rubble.

    (I'm not saying they are all terrible, Kirk in particular has good at bats (with lack of power)... just as a group it's a mystifying under-performance).
    I recall the Redsoxí massive slide to end the 2011 season and they missed the playoffs by a game.

  9. #1736
    Moderator Laika's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olerud363 View Post
    Has any team had a group of under 30 players implode like this? Bo/Gurriel/Vlad/Teoscar/Kirk/Chapman

    As a group their average age is 26. They should be at peak performance and have been reduced to rubble.

    (I'm not saying they are all terrible, Kirk in particular has good at bats (with lack of power)... just as a group it's a mystifying under-performance).
    Well the most important players are really not peak (27-28). Jansen and Espinal are in there. Tapia is but he's not important.

    Teoscar and Chapman are, I guess, slightly past their best before dates since they are 29.

    Springer is way post-peak. Kirk, Vlad, and Bo still have a few years before their physical peaks.
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

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    Quote Originally Posted by Solaxys View Post
    This is what Buck Showalter was thinking when he left Zack Britton on the bench in the playoffs extra inning game.

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    Vlad was fine swinging at that pitch. It was a bad breaking ball that found a ton of the plate. Thatís not on Charlie.

    Borucki is on the team because the FO has a calculated strategy of not investing much in the bullpen. We have decided to have a bullpen that projects to be average, that doesnít generate much swing and miss and is generally cheap. Thatís not on Charlie. He canít not use borucki. Borucki should be able to throw competitive pitches to Sosa.

    I donít know what you do with the offense. But honestly, Iím not even sure the offense was the problem in this particular game. I just thought they were generally unlucky. Like vlad hammered that gimme into the ground but sometimes it misses the shortstop, right. We arenít getting ANY hitting luck AND we are cold.

    I hope that the people who had good at bats last night were reminded to just do that again and things will happen. Donít change that approach for most of them.

  12. #1739
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Well the most important players are really not peak (27-28). Jansen and Espinal are in there. Tapia is but he's not important.

    Teoscar and Chapman are, I guess, slightly past their best before dates since they are 29.

    Springer is way post-peak. Kirk, Vlad, and Bo still have a few years before their physical peaks.
    Just saying 'on average' the group is at their peak. Their combined numbers should peak this year.

    Some day Bo will be 27 and Vlad 26, but Teoscar will be 32 then... this year those 6 theoretically should have their best WAR.

    I may be cherry picking for my narrative by not including Espinal and Jansen... but I didn't really have those guys penciled as core pieces coming into the season.

    Probably the best thing to do is not get too fancy, include all the players including Springer, Espinal and Jansen and measure underperformance.

    So the position players probably were projected for 30 WAR and are on pace for 15.
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Solaxys View Post
    I was reading an Elon Musk article and saw thereís no edit button for Twitter. Pretty brutal for professionals tweeting as their job. If youíre a big name, sure, you get a pass but some random guy like this it reflects poorly on imo. I know I have to edit like 2/3 of my posts here as I use my cell exclusively

  14. #1741
    Moderator Laika's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olerud363 View Post
    Just saying 'on average' the group is at their peak. Their combined numbers should peak this year.

    Some day Bo will be 27 and Vlad 26, but Teoscar will be 32 then... this year those 6 theoretically should have their best WAR.

    I may be cherry picking for my narrative by not including Espinal and Jansen... but I didn't really have those guys penciled as core pieces coming into the season.

    Probably the best thing to do is not get too fancy, include all the players including Springer, Espinal and Jansen and measure underperformance.

    So the position players probably were projected for 30 WAR and are on pace for 15.
    They are of course underperforming, I am not disputing that, but it does not make any sense to thing of the average age of the team.

    You need to place every specific player in the appropriate bucket.

    Think of the extreme example. Player A is 20 and Player B is 34. The team has an average age of 27. Does that team have the same performance variance as a team with all 27 year olds?
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

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  16. #1742
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagagad View Post
    Vlad was fine swinging at that pitch. It was a bad breaking ball that found a ton of the plate. Thatís not on Charlie.

    Borucki is on the team because the FO has a calculated strategy of not investing much in the bullpen. We have decided to have a bullpen that projects to be average, that doesnít generate much swing and miss and is generally cheap. Thatís not on Charlie. He canít not use borucki. Borucki should be able to throw competitive pitches to Sosa.

    I donít know what you do with the offense. But honestly, Iím not even sure the offense was the problem in this particular game. I just thought they were generally unlucky. Like vlad hammered that gimme into the ground but sometimes it misses the shortstop, right. We arenít getting ANY hitting luck AND we are cold.

    I hope that the people who had good at bats last night were reminded to just do that again and things will happen. Donít change that approach for most of them.

    I think it's reasonable to ask sort of dumb questions and get the smarter people thinking. Like if I was Rogers I'd be like "How come this Vlad guy had .600 slugging last year and is .400 this year. Why'd he hit a groundball with the bases loaded and the Goldie guy got it in the air no problem"

    And they'd be like 'Well in the long run Goldie hits grounders too... and it's a long season... and... well there is a bit of truth in what you say. Vladdy's grounder rate is higher then we'd like this year. We should get the swing mechanic guys to take a closer look."
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.

  17. #1743
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olerud363 View Post
    I think it's reasonable to ask sort of dumb questions and get the smarter people thinking. Like if I was Rogers I'd be like "How come this Vlad guy had .600 slugging last year and is .400 this year. Why'd he hit a groundball with the bases loaded and the Goldie guy got it in the air no problem"

    And they'd be like 'Well in the long run Goldie hits grounders too... and it's a long season... and... well there is a bit of truth in what you say. Vladdy's grounder rate is higher then we'd like this year. We should get the swing mechanic guys to take a closer look."
    Yea, Iíd agree with that. Iíd hope they are spending time trying to get vlad right.

  18. #1744
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    They are of course underperforming, I am not disputing that, but it does not make any sense to thing of the average age of the team.

    You need to place every specific player in the appropriate bucket.

    Think of the extreme example. Player A is 20 and Player B is 34. The team has an average age of 27. Does that team have the same performance variance as a team with all 27 year olds?
    If you weight it by playing time your team will always peak around age 27. Just weight the 20 year old that is barely playing, or still in aa, 0. Mike Trout and Carlos Beltran had their combined peak at 27 in 2012, when Trout was 20 and Beltran 34.

    Look at the question this way. Every group of players has a year when they are expected to peak together. For Ryan Tapia and Babe Ruth that would be around 1923. What year were Chapman/Gurriel/Guerrero/Bichette/Kirk and Hernandez expected to peak if you modelled it pre-season?

    Maybe the projection System already had them peaking in 2021.
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.


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