General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Carlos Danger]

Another option where we wouldn't need to worry about over paying FA is trade for Lopez from the Marlins. We would def be in the running for top rotation in baseball.

[John_Havok]

Yeah, the point is not that the team does not need an upgrade on SP5. Everybody would love a clear upgrade on SP5.

The point is that most of the names people want to bring in are not even projected upgrades.

If you look at ZiPS:

Kikuchi, 110.3 IP, 4.49 ERA, 1.0 WAR
White, 96.3 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.0 WAR
Pearson 65.3 IP, 4.41 ERA, 0.7 WAR
Ryu, 3.93 ERA
Tiedemann, 4.12 ERA
Juenger, 4.25 ERA
Zulueta, 5.05 ERA

This is not like 2022 where the team went into the year with a big injury risk in the middle of the rotation (Ryu) and a big injury risk in the SP7 slot (Pearson) a performance risk in the SP5 slot (Kikuchi) and big performance risk in the SP6 slot (Stripling).

This year you would not characterize anybody in the SP1-SP4 slots as performance or injury risks (you assume negative regression from Manoah and some positive from Berrios but mostly just accept that Berrios is an SP4 now). The ostensible durability of the top 4 makes it a bit easier to be comfortable with everyone else filling in that final slot.

The depth chart + projections seem to say that Kikuchi and White should be "fine" and there is plenty of upside on the way in the second half with Ryu, Tiedemann, and Zulu. Also wild cards in Pearson and Juenger. White and Kikuchi also have some upside on their own.

And look at the projected performances of the possible free agents:

Kluber, 1.7 WAR, 4.45 ERA in 156 innings
Wacha, 1.5 WAR, 4.43 ERA in 153 innings
Miley, 1.1 WAR, 4.38 ERA
Greinke, 1.0 WAR, 4.55 ERA
Cueto, 0.8 WAR, 4.68 ERA
these are not park adjusted ERAs for Rogers Centre

Is it really worth $11M or so to bring in Kluber? For a minimal projected upgrade? I would take him of course, but it seems inefficient. And guys like Greinke and Cueto just seem like lateral moves with zero upside at all.

I think the best thing for SP depth in 2023 would be another nearly MLB ready SP prospect. Like one of those Arizona arms as part of a catcher trade, to slide in along Tiedemann as an upside play.

I just don't see the point in some boring old SP5 for this rotation. And I'm sure the Blue Jays FO looks at a lot of those potential additions and thinks something similar - "but this guy isn't even a projected upgrade on Kikuchi or White..."

Sure, but all those who think projections are useless basically take the default position of " player X (in this case Kikuchi) sucked last year so he will surely suck this year, and player Y(say Miley) who was better than player X last year, must therefore also be better than player X this year"

[Laika]

Sure, but all those who think projections are useless basically take the default position of " player X (in this case Kikuchi) sucked last year so he will surely suck this year, and player Y(say Miley) who was better than player X last year, must therefore also be better than player X this year"

I know. It's annoying.

But we must continue to fight the good fight.

[Spanky99]

Another option where we wouldn't need to worry about over paying FA is trade for Lopez from the Marlins. We would def be in the running for top rotation in baseball.

Need a bat first.

[Carlos Danger]

Sure, but all those who think projections are useless basically take the default position of " player X (in this case Kikuchi) sucked last year so he will surely suck this year, and player Y(say Miley) who was better than player X last year, must therefore also be better than player X this year"

In the case of Kickuchi. Please explain it to me like I am a 7 year old. I am being serious.

What metrics are the projections using to say a pitcher who has declined for the past season and a half is going to improve the following season. I don't see that he was a victim of BAPIP etc, or some other outlier that it is probable would change this year? I mean, he might be friggin Cy Young this year, but how are the projections getting to that conclusion if you consider his actual results the past 1.5 seasons?

[jaysblue]

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-li...23-predictions

Jays lineup ranked 4th.

[Laika]

In the case of Kickuchi. Please explain it to me like I am a 7 year old. I am being serious.

What metrics are the projections using to say a pitcher who has declined for the past season and a half is going to improve the following season. I don't see that he was a victim of BAPIP etc, or some other outlier that it is probable would change this year? I mean, he might be friggin Cy Young this year, but how are the projections getting to that conclusion if you consider his actual results the past 1.5 seasons?

The projections care more about his more granular statistics. His strikeouts and walks, whiff rates, etc.

And the projections are probably still not quite ready to think that his HR rate is not unlucky at all.

Here are all the 2022 SP who pitched at least 90 innings and had a K% of 25% or more:

Strider, Rodon, Ohtani, Javier, Cole, Snell, Greene, Woodruff, Scherzer, Burnes, Cease, McClanahan, Luzardo, Lodolo, Nola, Gausman, Morton, Kershaw, Verlander, Peterson, Severino, Ray, Kikuchi, Castillo, Gallen, Wheeler, Ashby, Cortes, Springs, Gray, McKenzie, Darvish, Giolito, Mahle, Bieber.

If Kikuchi is, truly, a pitcher who can consistently strikeout 25% of batters but give up 2 HR per 9 innings pitched... then he's a statistical unicorn. He's the weirdest pitcher ever. He's unlikely to be the weirdest pitcher ever. Something has to give.

Here are the pitchers since 2000 who have done that in a sample of 100 IP or more (25%+ K% and 2 HR/9 or more)

2021 Tarik Skubal
2021 Andrew Heaney

Skubal was fantastic in 2022 before getting hurt.
Heaney was fantastic in 2022.

Not saying Kikuchi will be great or anything but it's pretty easy to see why the projection systems think he is better than his 2022.

[Laika]

Kikuchi still only has 466 big league innings. Not a huge sample. And his seasons have been divergent.

2019 he had low K rate, but gave up dongs
2020 he did not give up lots of homers and improved the K rate
2021 he had good K rate, okay walk rate, but gave up homers
2022 he had elite K rate, horrible walk rate, and gave up homers

All over the place season to season. His FIPs by year are 5.71, 3.30, 4.61, and 5.62 again all over the place.

He has not been "consistently" poo he has been bad in two years (2019 and 2022) but palatable in two others, arguably.

[Jimcanuck]

Kikuchi still only has 466 big league innings. Not a huge sample. And his seasons have been divergent.

2019 he had low K rate, but gave up dongs
2020 he did not give up lots of homers and improved the K rate
2021 he had good K rate, okay walk rate, but gave up homers
2022 he had elite K rate, horrible walk rate, and gave up homers

All over the place season to season. His FIPs by year are 5.71, 3.30, 4.61, and 5.62 again all over the place.

He has not been "consistently" poo he has been arguably bad in two years (2019 and 2022) but palatable in two others.

Well if he's that inconsistent, all the more reason to add SP depth.

[Carlos Danger]

The projections care more about his more granular statistics. His strikeouts and walks, whiff rates, etc.

And the projections are probably still not quite ready to think that his HR rate is not unlucky at all.

Here are all the 2022 SP who pitched at least 90 innings and had a K% of 25% or more:

Strider, Rodon, Ohtani, Javier, Cole, Snell, Greene, Woodruff, Scherzer, Burnes, Cease, McClanahan, Luzardo, Lodolo, Nola, Gausman, Morton, Kershaw, Verlander, Peterson, Severino, Ray, Kikuchi, Castillo, Gallen, Wheeler, Ashby, Cortes, Springs, Gray, McKenzie, Darvish, Giolito, Mahle, Bieber.

If Kikuchi is, truly, a pitcher who can consistently strikeout 25% of batters but give up 2 HR per 9 innings pitched... then he's a statistical unicorn. He's the weirdest pitcher ever. He's unlikely to be the weirdest pitcher ever. Something has to give.

Here are the pitchers since 2000 who have done that in a sample of 100 IP or more (25%+ K% and 2 HR/9 or more)

2021 Tarik Skubal
2021 Andrew Heaney

Skubal was fantastic in 2022 before getting hurt.
Heaney was fantastic in 2022.

Not saying Kikuchi will be great or anything but it's pretty easy to see why the projection systems think he is better than his 2022.

Thank you for this, I appreciate you taking the time to try and explain it.

Ok, so you were focusing on K% which is projected as great in 2023 down to 24.4% from 27% in 2022.

If we are using projections, what about BB/9- His 2023 BB/9 is projected at 3.53 by Steamer..

Rating BB/9 BB%
Excellent 1.5 4.5%
Great 1.9 5.5%
Above Average 2.5 6.5%
Average 2.9 7.7%
Below Average 3.2 8.0%
Poor 3.5 8.5%
Awful 4.0 9.0%

Poor is the second to worst possible BB/9 projection you can get..

Guys like Rodon, Above average, Mahle, average etc, so I don't think using just Kikuchi's K% is an apples and apples comp for projecting future success.. I don't know... I have only see regression from him since the All -Star appearance.

Thanks again.

[Laika]

Thank you for this, I appreciate you taking the time to try and explain it.

Ok, so you were focusing on K% which is projected as great in 2023 down to 24.4% from 27% in 2022.

If we are using projections, what about BB/9- His 2023 BB/9 is projected at 3.53 by Steamer..

Rating BB/9 BB%
Excellent 1.5 4.5%
Great 1.9 5.5%
Above Average 2.5 6.5%
Average 2.9 7.7%
Below Average 3.2 8.0%
Poor 3.5 8.5%
Awful 4.0 9.0%

Poor is the second to worst possible BB/9 projection you can get..

Guys like Rodon, Above average, Mahle, average etc, so I don't think using just Kikuchi's K% is an apples and apples comp for projecting future success.. I don't know... I have only see regression from him since the All -Star appearance.

Thanks again.

The K rate is why he projects to be a positive WAR pitcher
The walk rate and HR rates are why he projects to be a below average starting pitcher

If he projected to have above average K and BB rates we wouldn't even be having this conversation because he'd be a stud

[Carlos Danger]

Kikuchi still only has 466 big league innings. Not a huge sample. And his seasons have been divergent.

2019 he had low K rate, but gave up dongs
2020 he did not give up lots of homers and improved the K rate
2021 he had good K rate, okay walk rate, but gave up homers
2022 he had elite K rate, horrible walk rate, and gave up homers

All over the place season to season. His FIPs by year are 5.71, 3.30, 4.61, and 5.62 again all over the place.

He has not been "consistently" poo he has been bad in two years (2019 and 2022) but palatable in two others, arguably.

He had such a great first half of 2021 that it softened the overall numbers. His 2nd half was shit, which might have been from reduced velocity.., but it was not a good end to the season. So, 1.5 years consecutive of not being good.

[wamco]

Doesn’t his increased k rate after being moved to the pen artificially inflate his numbers in comparison to your list who at a quick glance were strictly starting pitchers?

[Laika]

Doesn’t his increased k rate after being moved to the pen artificially inflate his numbers in comparison to your list who at a quick glance were strictly starting pitchers?

Of course, but his K rate at a SP was still 24.5% so it's the same company. There are a few others on the list who relieved a bit.

[LetTheBallFly]

[Laika]

If you want someone recent who might be similar to Kikuchi

Vince Velasquez might be the guy.

He has had a few seasons where he has been able to miss lots of bats but has gotten shelled (dingers).

Anyway, the Kikuchi signing was a nightmare. What an annoying player to have in the fold.