General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Spanky99]

Nice research. I like a fresh thread to start the season, rather than having it filled with offseason discussion, but to each their own.

Same, around ST, but not a big deal.

[Grant77]

Do we think the Devers contract is a good comparable for a Guerrero Jr. contract extension? Devers is a little more established and older, but the skillsets are reasonably similar.

[Brownie19]

Do we think the Devers contract is a good comparable for a Guerrero Jr. contract extension? Devers is a little more established and older, but the skillsets are reasonably similar.

I think that's fair - however, if Vlad meets his projections and posts another 160 wRC+, 5.5+ WAR year, he probably pushes into a level/class above Devers....maybe it goes up to $385M over 11 years or something.

[Laika]

Yeah, I think so.

The pros and cons kind of cancel out.
Devers better defensive value, Vlad better projected bat. Similar total package upside between them.
Both kind of fall in the same bucket as "good hitting young fatties", Devers probably not being thought of as a 3B in his 30s at all.

Devers was set the reach FA before what would be his age 27 season.
Vlad on track for the same FA timeline.

They bought 10 of his FA years.
Vlad being 3 years away from FA means it should cost a bit less to do a similar thing for him. More risk in buying out 10 FA years when those don't even begin for 3 seasons.

[The Cats Ass]

Somewhat, but I'd expect to get Vlad cheaper. Vladdy has more team control, but he seems to be on the same path. We'll see if he bounces back next year, Devers had a down year after his breakout as well, but hasn't fully came back up to the 6+ WAR range over the past 2 years.

Age 22
Vladdy - 6.3 WAR
Devers - 6.7 WAR

Age 23
Vladdy - 2.8 WAR
Devers - 0.7 WAR (2 WAR - 162 Game Pace)