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Thread: General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

  1. #1745
    All Star MikeM's Avatar
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    where is dante bichette

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  3. #1746
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    They are of course underperforming, I am not disputing that, but it does not make any sense to thing of the average age of the team.

    You need to place every specific player in the appropriate bucket.

    Think of the extreme example. Player A is 20 and Player B is 34. The team has an average age of 27. Does that team have the same performance variance as a team with all 27 year olds?
    If you weight it by playing time your team will always peak around age 27. Just weight the 20 year old that is barely playing, or still in aa, 0. Mike Trout and Carlos Beltran had their combined peak at 27 in 2012, when Trout was 20 and Beltran 34.

    Look at the question this way. Every group of players has a year when they are expected to peak together. For Ryan Tapia and Babe Ruth that would be around 1923. What year were Chapman/Gurriel/Guerrero/Bichette/Kirk and Hernandez expected to peak if you modelled it pre-season?

    Maybe the projection System already had them peaking in 2021.
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.

  4. #1747
    MVP Stangstag's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
    where is dante bichette
    Rumors are that he is unvaccinated. It would make sense why we havenít seen him at all.

  5. #1748
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olerud363 View Post
    If you weight it by playing time your team will always peak around age 27. Just weight the 20 year old that is barely playing, or still in aa, 0. Mike Trout and Carlos Beltran had their combined peak at 27 in 2012, when Trout was 20 and Beltran 34.

    Look at the question this way. Every group of players has a year when they are expected to peak together. For Ryan Tapia and Babe Ruth that would be around 1923. What year were Chapman/Gurriel/Guerrero/Bichette/Kirk and Hernandez expected to peak if you modelled it pre-season?

    Maybe the projection System already had them peaking in 2021.
    Why would anybody model that? You care about the sum of player performances.
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

  6. #1749
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olerud363 View Post
    I think it's reasonable to ask sort of dumb questions and get the smarter people thinking. Like if I was Rogers I'd be like "How come this Vlad guy had .600 slugging last year and is .400 this year. Why'd he hit a groundball with the bases loaded and the Goldie guy got it in the air no problem"

    And they'd be like 'Well in the long run Goldie hits grounders too... and it's a long season... and... well there is a bit of truth in what you say. Vladdy's grounder rate is higher then we'd like this year. We should get the swing mechanic guys to take a closer look."
    I thought that being overweight was one reason affecting the launch angle. Once fixed, he started hitting line drives (2021). The chronic launch angle syndrome affecting Vlad is truly puzzling. Maybe it can’t be fixed, very doubtful, or there’s undisclosed injury (he did get hit by a pitch in the hand/wrist area). I sure hope things change and fast.

  7. #1750
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagagad View Post
    Borucki is on the team because the FO has a calculated strategy of not investing much in the bullpen.
    The Yankees are spending nothing on Cortes, King, Holmes, Green, Peralta and Loaisiga. They're spending a ton of Chapman, who looks like a total fucking bum.

    The big-ticket guy everyone wanted for the Jays this past offseason was Iglesias. He's got a 4.02 ERA and has already lost two games for the Angels. He's got the same 1-2 record as Romano and a worse ERA. Another guy with a 1-2 record is Liam Hendriks, who was the best RP in baseball over the last three seasons and also costs a shit load of money.

    Iglesias and Hendriks' two losses are tied with Cimber, Romano, Merryweather and Thornton. The only guy on the Jays with more losses is Garcia, with 3. So these super expensive, top-tier relievers have given up the inopportune run the same number of times as the Jays guys have.

    The relievers I wanted the Jays to get the most this offseason were McHugh and Melancon. McHugh has been bad and Melancon has been trash.

    Building a bullpen has nothing to do with how much you spend on it. It has almost everything to do with a little bit of scouting and a lot bit of sheer dumb luck.

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  9. #1751
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    Using W-L to evaluate SPs is bad enough but using it for Closers? Wow

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  11. #1752
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwistedLogic View Post
    The Yankees are spending nothing on Cortes, King, Holmes, Green, Peralta and Loaisiga. They're spending a ton of Chapman, who looks like a total fucking bum.

    The big-ticket guy everyone wanted for the Jays this past offseason was Iglesias. He's got a 4.02 ERA and has already lost two games for the Angels. He's got the same 1-2 record as Romano and a worse ERA. Another guy with a 1-2 record is Liam Hendriks, who was the best RP in baseball over the last three seasons and also costs a shit load of money.

    Iglesias and Hendriks' two losses are tied with Cimber, Romano, Merryweather and Thornton. The only guy on the Jays with more losses is Garcia, with 3. So these super expensive, top-tier relievers have given up the inopportune run the same number of times as the Jays guys have.

    The relievers I wanted the Jays to get the most this offseason were McHugh and Melancon. McHugh has been bad and Melancon has been trash.

    Building a bullpen has nothing to do with how much you spend on it. It has almost everything to do with a little bit of scouting and a lot bit of sheer dumb luck.
    Yeah high leverage relievers are always so tempting to want to pay for in the off season, but it's such a crap shoot with relievers.

    Hopefully the average to shitty BP the Jays always trot out corrects itself from within over the next couple of seasons. There are a shit ton of intriguing arms in the system and our starting rotation is pretty set for a while.

  12. #1753
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  14. #1754
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    Quote Originally Posted by JFD View Post
    What’s Chapman been getting a lot of sun?

  15. #1755
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    Yikes


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  17. #1756
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaysAllMighty View Post
    Yikes

    If it’s not a troll post, what are chances they shut down Toronto?

  18. #1757
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    Ah. Won’t come to that since they’re not there

  19. #1758
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Why would anybody model that? You care about the sum of player performances.
    They already model that because they model how each individual player would do. Not sure what you are trying to get at. All I'm saying is that it's unusual for a group of players to under-perform when they are all between 23-29.

    Individually you'd expect those over 27 to decline a bit, those under to improve. As a group you'd expect the sum of their value to either increase a bit from 2021 to 2022, or decrease just a bit (as the older players lose a bit, or the players having good 2021s regress a bitg). What's happened is unusual given their ages.

    Like In 2016 with Donaldson, Tulo, Edwin, Bautista, Pillar, Travis and others.... it wasn't unnusual that they declined as a group.. because as a group they were older.
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.

  20. #1759
    All Star Omar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaysAllMighty View Post
    Yikes

    Good heavens!

  21. #1760
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    Quote Originally Posted by connorp View Post
    If it’s not a troll post
    lol

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