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Thread: General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

  1. #6481
    Moderator Laika's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WryNGinger View Post
    I don't think it's all about the arm and health with Pearson at this point. He needs to have a bit of a run of success at AAA I think. If he comes up and has a bad/unlucky inning I am not sure if he has the track record to have the mental strength to "shrug it off" like the more experienced guys. Dude has had Sami Salo type luck so far in his career. Hard to say if that is it for sure but I wouldn't want to be in his head if he comes up and gets lit up. I am rooting for him big time!
    Right but there are like no games left.

    For 2022... keeping him in the minors does not help AT ALL in figuring out if he can help the team in the playoffs.
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

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    Maybe Berrios' start last night will have them rethinking that. The cynic in me has me wondering if money from three games at home hasn't factored in too though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RobinThicc View Post
    They're looking at the Rays Home/Away record. 50-28 at Home, 33-39 Away. Add in the fact we never play good in the Trop. I'd rather take our chances at home. This would also line up Manoah to pitch 2 games in the divisional round against a much tougher Astros team.

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  7. #6485
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Cats Ass View Post
    They're looking at the Rays Home/Away record. 50-28 at Home, 33-39 Away. Add in the fact we never play good in the Trop. I'd rather take our chances at home. This would also line up Manoah to pitch 2 games in the divisional round against a much tougher Astros team.
    Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

    vs

    Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

    Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

    And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

    vs

    Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

    Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

    And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.
    Wouldn’t be surprised if they used Manoah out of the bullpen in one of those WC games too though

  9. #6487
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

    vs

    Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

    Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

    And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.
    Worst case scenario would be they lose 3/4 against the Rays, start Manoah on game 162 and still lose that game and play the WC on the road

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

    vs

    Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

    Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

    And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.
    This has disaster written all over it. Not that I agree with it, but if this doesn't work out for Schneider, he may not shed the "interim" manager title and we may be looking for someone new to lead the 2023 Blue Jays.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brownie19 View Post
    This has disaster written all over it. Not that I agree with it, but if this doesn't work out for Schneider, he may not shed the "interim" manager title and we may be looking for someone new to lead the 2023 Blue Jays.
    I don't really see this as a Schneider choice at all

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stangstag View Post
    I don't really see this as a Schneider choice at all
    definitely not
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

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    *adjusts glasses* sir! we've ran the regression model six million times and can conclude that starting Alex Manoah in tomorrow's final game of the season will improve our odds of advancing to the divisional series by 1.467%
    The Mike Wilner of BJMB

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    *adjusts glasses* sir! we've ran the regression model six million times and can conclude that starting Alex Manoah in tomorrow's final game of the season will improve our odds of advancing to the divisional series by 1.467%
    What is the revenue from 3 playoff home games?

    Of course if Manoah starts in a wild card series it increases chances of playoff home games in later rounds.

    They also need to keep him in reserve in case game 162 is meaningful for the playoff race. There is still like a 5% chance it will be meaningful for Toronto and a 10% chance it could be meaningful for Baltimore. Or something like that.

    I mean supposedly Toronto had a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, but that is already down to 98% in 2 days. So what are chances game 162 is meaningful? 4%? I don't think the playoff odds consider injuries, bullpen burnout, and 'pressing'.

    Seems people on the board have started claiming 'pressing' is a real thing. OK. So that means all the playoff odds aren't quite right. They probably assume uncorrelated events, but if pressing is real, the team being chased could start pressing, results will become correlated.
    If we don't win this year we'll win next year, if we don't win next year we'll win the year after that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Olerud363 View Post
    What is the revenue from 3 playoff home games?
    I read on twitter today it's split 50/50 between the 2 teams, not sure if it's true, just saying.
    Quote Originally Posted by connorp View Post
    Long way of saying Chapman’s bat sucks

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanky99 View Post
    I read on twitter today it's split 50/50 between the 2 teams, not sure if it's true, just saying.
    Under the labor agreement for the 2021 season, the post-season total player bonus pool was made up of:

    50% of the gate receipts from the wild-card games
    60% of the gate receipts from the first three games of the division series
    60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the league championship series
    60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the World Series.

    The players’ pool is then divided up among the teams in the postseason. For reference: For the 2021 World Series-winning Atlanta Braves, their shares of the postseason pool totaled $32,568,712. The value of a full share shifts depending on how many are awarded by a vote of the team. In the Braves’ case, a share was worth $397,391. The team doled out 66 full shares, a total of 14.25 partial shares and 38 cash awards.


    I cannot find if that formula has been tweaked at all with the expanded playoffs.
    ****FREE SPANKY****

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    Quote Originally Posted by John_Havok View Post
    Under the labor agreement for the 2021 season, the post-season total player bonus pool was made up of:

    50% of the gate receipts from the wild-card games
    60% of the gate receipts from the first three games of the division series
    60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the league championship series
    60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the World Series.

    The players’ pool is then divided up among the teams in the postseason. For reference: For the 2021 World Series-winning Atlanta Braves, their shares of the postseason pool totaled $32,568,712. The value of a full share shifts depending on how many are awarded by a vote of the team. In the Braves’ case, a share was worth $397,391. The team doled out 66 full shares, a total of 14.25 partial shares and 38 cash awards.


    I cannot find if that formula has been tweaked at all with the expanded playoffs.
    Yes, that's what I read this morning on the WC series.
    Quote Originally Posted by connorp View Post
    Long way of saying Chapman’s bat sucks

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    *adjusts glasses* sir! we've ran the regression model six million times and can conclude that starting Alex Manoah in tomorrow's final game of the season will improve our odds of advancing to the divisional series by 1.467%
    Lmao exactly

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