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Thread: MLB 2021 Draft

  1. #1
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    MLB 2021 Draft

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...-top-10-picks/
    2021 MLB Mock Draft: 'Way Too Early' Top 10 Picks

    By Carlos Collazo
    on June 12, 2020

    You don’t need to tell us how insane it is to put out a 2021 mock draft the day after we wrapped up the 2020 draft. We know it’s crazy. But at Baseball America, sometimes we like to get a bit crazy with prospects.

    That’s why, like the last two years, we’re giving you our best guess at a top 10 for the 2021 draft with a year to go before we get there. With no baseball going on, we can’t work off of the reverse order of the current standings. So we’re using the 2020 projected standings from Fangraphs.com to determine our order for these purposes.

    1. Orioles — Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

    Rocker has the size and stuff of a 1-1 collegiate arm. He was the highest-ranked player to get to campus after the 2018 draft, has a fastball that gets into the upper-90s and a filthy slider to go along with it. He’s exceptionally physical at 6-foot-4, 255-pounds and stepped into a weekend role as a freshman in 2019, where he went 12-5, 3.25 with 114 strikeouts to 21 walks and was named Freshman of the Year.

    2. Mariners — Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

    Leiter should compete with teammate Rocker to be the highest-drafted Vanderbilt pitcher next year. The son of former major leaguer Al, Leiter was a no-doubt first-round talent coming out of high school, but questions about his price tag meant he got to campus, where he quickly showed his stuff and pitchability was overwhelming for collegiate hitters. In three starts and four games, Leiter went 2-0, 1.72 with 22 strikeouts and eight walks in 15.2 innings. He attacks hitters with good tempo, solid fastball command and a hammer curveball.

    3. Tigers — Brady House, SS/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga

    House is the No. 1 ranked player in the high school class and comes with power tools and a power frame. A shortstop and righthander, House probably has more upside as a hitter even if he might have to move to third base or outfield in the future. “A premium body with tremendous feel to hit at the plate,” one scout said. “His only tool in question is his speed. Otherwise, it’s premium tools and skills.”

    4. Marlins — Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami

    Del Castillo’s bat was his calling card going back to his high school days, where scouts pointed out that he had a worn spot on the sweet spot of his wood bat because he was able to consistently place the barrel head on the ball. His feel for hitting is exceptional, and he’s proven that over a year-plus with Miami, posting a .336/.430/.571 line with more walks than strikeouts and 14 home runs. His is a fairly complete offensive profile. If he can stick at catcher, that’s a cherry on top, but he’s also shown he has the athleticism to play in the outfield.

    5. Pirates — Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

    McLain was drafted in the back of the first round by the Diamondbacks in 2018, but opted to not sign and went to UCLA. Scouts think that move is paying off for him, as he was off to an exceptional start in the 2020 season, hitting .397/.422/.622 through 13 games, building on an all-star summer in the Cape Cod League. He’s tapped into more power than expected out of high school, and has a good combination of speed, defensive ability at an up the middle position—shortstop, second and center field are all potential homes. He’ll have to keep hitting to go here, but scouts think he’s in the mix among the best players in the class.

    6. Giants — Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

    Fabian was originally a member of the 2019 draft class, but enrolled early at Florida and started 54 games in center field for the Gators after doing so. He’s got quick hands at the plate and has started to experiment with switch-hitting, though his natural side is on the right. Fabian is a good runner with the frame to add more power as he continues to fill out.

    7. Royals — Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

    Hill was part of the loaded 2018 prep pitching class, and out of high school he had elite athleticism, a projectable 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame and a loud fastball/changeup combination. He’s only thrown 21.2 innings in a year plus with LSU and missed most of his freshman year with a right elbow strain. But he returned healthy this spring and looked dominant. He’s figured out a slider that could be a game-changer for him moving forward. He’ll start for the Tigers next year, likely at the front of their rotation, and if he continues to perform in the role with his pure stuff and frame should go good. He’s posted a 0.83 ERA with 11.6 strikeouts per nine and 3.3 walks per nine in his LSU career.

    8. Blue Jays — Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

    Cowser was the first Southland Conference player since Michael Choice in 2010 to be named to the Golden Spikes Award preseason watch list. That was thanks to a tremendous freshman season, where he hit .361/.450/.602 with seven home runs and 17 doubles and then impressed with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team. He’s a pure hitter with a loose lefthanded swing. Filling out physically and adding more power to his game will help him shoot up boards next spring.

    9. Rockies — Luke Leto, SS/RHP, Portage (Mich.) Central HS

    Like House, Leto is a physical two-way player with potential on both sides of the ball. He has good bat speed and power potential as a hitter and a fastball that gets into the low-90s with a good curveball.

    10. Rangers — Braylon Bishop, OF, Arkansas HS, Texarkana, Ark.

    Bishop has been a famous name for a long time, first appearing in Baseball America as a 15-year old who stole the show as an underclassmen at a Perfect Game MLK Tournament in Arizona. Bishop has legitimate five-tool potential with plenty of athleticism, speed and power potential in center field.

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    The Top 10 in 2021 doesn’t look quite as strong as 2020, but it’s still very early and names can emerge. Sources speculate it’s going to be a deep draft, with many undrafted players in 2020 heading back to college.

    The undrafted 2020 prep class can either enter JUCO and be eligible in 2021, or commit to college and be eligible 2022 or 2023 depending on their age. The trickle down effect of the pandemic will be felt for a few years as there’s more players than roster spots available, and fewer scholarships due to loss revenues in 2020 and returning players with extended draft eligibility.

    Unfortunately this draft will be even less scouted than 2020, with the season cancelled and no summer showcases. There might be some kind of fall or winter showcase to compensate, depending on pandemic situation. A lot of weight will be placed on the 12-16 weeks leading up to the June draft, which is currently agreed to be only 20 rounds.
    Last edited by BlueRocky; 06-14-2020 at 11:26 AM.

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    I wonder how the draft order will be determined if there is no season

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    If there’s less than 81 games this season, MLB commissioner will have the right to keep last year’s draft order and make some “good faith” adjustments.

    If they just use last year’s order the Blue Jays get another fifth overall pick.

    Making a draft order based on a 48 game season makes no sense, it will be tank wars between Detroit, Baltimore, Marlins, etc.

    But if they average out the win total between 2017, 2018, 2019 and create a draft order, we’d see something like this:

    1. Tigers (58.3 wins)
    2. Orioles (58.6 wins)
    3. Marlins (65.67 wins tied)
    4. Royals (65.67 wins tied)
    5. White Sox (67 wins)
    6. Padres (69 wins)
    7. Reds (70 wins)
    8. Giants (71.33 wins)
    9. Blue Jays (72 wins)
    10. Rangers (74.33 wins)
    11. Pirates (75.33 wins)
    12. Phillies (75.66 wins)
    Last edited by BlueRocky; 06-14-2020 at 12:58 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueRocky View Post
    If there’s less than 81 games this season, MLB commissioner will have the right to keep last year’s draft order and make some “good faith” adjustments.

    If they just use last year’s order the Blue Jays get another fifth overall pick.

    Making a draft order based on a 48 game season makes no sense, it will be tank wars between Detroit, Baltimore, Marlins, etc.

    But if they average out the win total between 2017, 2018, 2019 and create a draft order, we’d see something like this:

    1. Tigers (58.3 wins)
    2. Orioles (58.6 wins)
    3. Marlins (65.67 wins tied)
    4. Royals (65.67 wins tied)
    5. White Sox (67 wins)
    6. Padres (69 wins)
    7. Reds (70 wins)
    8. Giants (71.33 wins)
    9. Blue Jays (72 wins)
    10. Rangers (74.33 wins)
    11. Pirates (75.33 wins)
    12. Phillies (75.66 wins)
    Could just add this season's wins to last season to determine the draft order?

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    Quote Originally Posted by THANOS View Post
    Could just add this season's wins to last season to determine the draft order?
    Seems the fairest way if it’s only a 50 game season.

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    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ball-prospects

    A couple familiar names here, guys that were in the 2020 class and names from past drafts:
    Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
    Jack Leftwich, RHP, Florida
    Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
    Seth Lonsway, LHP, Ohio State
    Mason Erla, RHP, Michigan State
    Kevin Abel, RHP, Oregon State
    Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia

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    http://perfectgame.tv/

    PG National Live Stream

    First game starts at 11:45 AM ET. Second game at 3 PM ET. All week through Sunday
    LoD Executive VP of Debut Waivers

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    Quote Originally Posted by THANOS View Post
    Could just add this season's wins to last season to determine the draft order?
    Tigers could go 50-0...have no one else play and they would still be picking 24th...how great is that

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    Quote Originally Posted by King View Post
    http://perfectgame.tv/

    PG National Live Stream

    First game starts at 11:45 AM ET. Second game at 3 PM ET. All week through Sunday
    add one hour to those times
    LoD Executive VP of Debut Waivers

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    https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/to...raft-prospects

    1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
    2. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
    3. Brady House, 3B/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS (Ga.)
    4. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
    5. Christian Little, RHP, Christian Brothers HS (Mo.)
    6. Braylon Bishop, OF, Arkansas HS (Ark.)
    7. Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
    8. Luke Leto, SS/RHP, Portage Central HS (Mich.)
    9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
    10. Tyree Reed, OF, American Canyon HS (Calif.)
    11. Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood HS (Tex.)
    12. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
    13. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Calif.)
    14. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
    15. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
    16. Ian Moller, C, Wahlert HS (Iowa)
    17. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
    18. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
    19. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (Texas)
    20. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueRocky View Post
    https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/to...raft-prospects

    1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
    2. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
    3. Brady House, 3B/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS (Ga.)
    4. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
    5. Christian Little, RHP, Christian Brothers HS (Mo.)
    6. Braylon Bishop, OF, Arkansas HS (Ark.)
    7. Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
    8. Luke Leto, SS/RHP, Portage Central HS (Mich.)
    9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
    10. Tyree Reed, OF, American Canyon HS (Calif.)
    11. Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood HS (Tex.)
    12. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
    13. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Calif.)
    14. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
    15. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
    16. Ian Moller, C, Wahlert HS (Iowa)
    17. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
    18. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
    19. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (Texas)
    20. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

    How many of those 20 will drop right out of the first round when the draft rolls around next year?
    I'm going to see 11 aren't 1st rounders next year.

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    Easily half of them. Draft rankings are super volatile around this time of the year, 2021 class especially so with the circumstances around scouting.

    We had guys like Dylan Crews, Blaze Jordan, Jordan Walker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Casey Martin, and Cole Wilcox really highly ranked 12 months ago.

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    How is the draft gonna play out if the 2020 season doesn't get player due to either the pandemic or a lockout? same order as this years draft?

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