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Thread: The Jays can only afford 8-10 more losses in 2021 | Basic schedule analysis update

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    All Star TwistedLogic's Avatar
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    The Jays can only afford 8-10 more losses in 2021 | Basic schedule analysis update


    It is September 1st and we are down to five teams in the Wild Card picture.

    I have listed these five teams below, alongside the records they need the rest of the way to make it to 92 wins by the end of the season.

    Record needed to get to 92 wins:

    - Yankees: 16-14

    - Red Sox: 17-11

    - Athletics: 19-11

    - Mariners: 21-8

    - Blue Jays: 23-8

    Notes:

    - The list above is ordered in difficulty to get to 92 wins.

    - The Yankees are looking very safe for the playoffs. They'd have to play below .500 ball the rest of the way to miss out and that looks unlikely based on how easy their remaining schedule is.

    - Every other team has a fairly tough road to the playoffs. The easiest path after the Yankees is the Red Sox, and they still need play 17-11, which is .607 baseball.

    - Barring a collapse across the board, the Blue Jays essentially need to play over .700 baseball in September to make the playoffs. Chances are, they can only afford 8-10 more losses maximum.

    Remaining Blue Jays Schedule:

    The Blue Jays have 31 games remaining this season. This is how those games shake out:

    - 8 games vs the Baltimore Orioles

    - 7 games vs the Minnesota Twins

    - 7 games vs the New York Yankees

    - 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays

    - 3 games vs the Oakland Athletics

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    Pretty much need to sweep the Orioles and Twins to have a shot.

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    Id say if Springer is out again theres no way they hit 90 wins. If hes still ok and in the lineup then MAYBE, but a lot of things have to break right with the bullpen.

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    Yeah, it's over. Pack it in.

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    7 games vs the New York Yankees

    - 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays

    13 games @ 500 win % vs Yankees/Rays = 6-7 losses just here.

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    Glimmer of hope.
    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Alright let's all get drunk and disappoint our families tonight

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    Might be time to start the "Offseason Discussion" thread...

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    Have the Jays had a 23-8 run at any point this season yet?

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    I really hope Springer is telling the staff the truth. We need him, but we also need him for the next 4 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Alright let's all get drunk and disappoint our families tonight

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krylian View Post
    Have the Jays had a 23-8 run at any point this season yet?
    No, no way. The best we had was the homestand coming back to, TO.
    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Alright let's all get drunk and disappoint our families tonight

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanky99 View Post
    I really hope Springer is telling the staff the truth. We need him, but we also need him for the next 4 years.
    He looked to be in pain when he was on 2B yesterday... Not good.

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    The following path gets the Blue Jays to 90 wins. Not a guaranteed wild card but close:

    - 8 games vs the Baltimore Orioles: 6-2
    - 7 games vs the Minnesota Twins: 5-2
    - 7 games vs the New York Yankees: 4-3
    - 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays: 4-2
    - 3 games vs the Oakland Athletics: 2-1

    If none of the teams above the Jays catch fire and something like 88 wins happens to be the # for the second wild card, you can afford an extra two losses above.

    It's definitely still possible if they can handle the Orioles and Twins.

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    DONOR Spanky99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilko View Post
    He looked to be in pain when he was on 2B yesterday... Not good.
    Yeah, he winced and shook out his leg, right after he put on the brakes. It was clear as day.
    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Alright let's all get drunk and disappoint our families tonight

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    Quote Originally Posted by TwistedLogic View Post
    The following path gets the Blue Jays to 90 wins. Not a guaranteed wild card but close:

    - 8 games vs the Baltimore Orioles: 6-2
    - 7 games vs the Minnesota Twins: 5-2
    - 7 games vs the New York Yankees: 4-3
    - 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays: 4-2
    - 3 games vs the Oakland Athletics: 2-1

    If none of the teams above the Jays catch fire and something like 88 wins happens to be the # for the second wild card, you can afford an extra two losses above.

    It's definitely still possible if they can handle the Orioles and Twins.
    I see it as the other way around, if they take care of the teams in front of you (as you posted).

    Good posts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Laika View Post
    Alright let's all get drunk and disappoint our families tonight

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    All Star TwistedLogic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilko View Post
    He looked to be in pain when he was on 2B yesterday... Not good.
    He looked to be in pain in his earlier at-bat too. I noticed him wincing on every swing that torqued his knee and then he almost looked like he was limping back to the dugout when he struck out.

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